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It's worth starting to transition to html5 if you can but from what I understand html5 is a PITA still due to different browser implementations and you still have to use flash as a fallback or else you are going to leave a significant number of users out in the cold. So right there clearly you can see that it isn't dead. In fact it is necessary.
It will be dead within two or three years of the time when > 99% of users can use HTML5 video but we're not there yet. There are many webmaster utilities out there which only use flash for video so that's going to keep it around for longer yet. Then people still use it for ads and other displays. My best guess is 3 more years for video, 5 more years for other things. Then after that you will see under 75% of users with flash installed in their browsers.
It always amazes me how many people talk a lot of bullshit about this topic. "Flash is dead" is a twilight zone type comment at this point in time.
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