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Take a look at how quickly difficulty climbs (it will be 9,000,000 next week) and understand that bitcoins are distributed in groups called blocks and do not have a correlation to effort. No one can say definitively who will be awarded a block, so you cannot say "I will pay X for a mining rig and get Y return". "There are no guarantees you will win a block every N days."
What is certain is that difficulty climbs every 2016 blocks based on the time it took to find the previous 2016 blocks. So when all the suckers climb on, the difficulty will continue to fly up to near infinite. Put 15,000,000 in your calculator for a few months out, and see what your return that you might get if you are lucky is.
Do you like that? No guarantees. Inevitable reduction in return. It certainly is exciting, spending money and not knowing what you'll get. 3 months ago difficulty was 40% of what it is today, and 30% of what it will be next week.
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