You've obviously put a lot of thought into this, and for that I commend you.
If you don't mind I'll go through your post and critique it some. Keep in mind that my comments are based on my own experience and knowlege of secury, camping, survival, and a combined 25 years of working in the medical and security fields and thus knowing something extra about human nature.
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Originally Posted by DWB
I have five scenarios for this:
1) Can we make it to the farm? If so, we're set and can live there forever. We have well water, can grow just about anything, have livestock and chickens, can trade with neighbors for anything we may not have.
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Awesome. If you have sustainable renewable water and food resources that's great. But the experts would also point out that you could also stand to have yet another location in place that has at least some provisions in case you have to abandon your place for a while. Also, a backup water plan might be useful, as wells can be poisoned, they can also be tainted by bad environmental conditions. Also, how well would you be prepped to defend your little oasis?
But overall you'd likely score some good marks on that preppers show for having all that in place.
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Originally Posted by DWB
2) Are we caught in the city where we spend a lot of our time? If so, we can be OK for a little while, a few weeks, but that's it. The goal is make it to the farm, which is a 10 hour drive.
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The experts would likely tell you that your remote location is a bit too far away for certain situations. You should probably set up at least one cache of provisions, extra gas, etc, along the route. Also have two or more routes you're familiar with to get where you're going if possible.
You should probably add to your in-home stores at least a little, in case it's just not safe to bug out for an extended period initially.
But having most of your needed stuffs already at your remote location scores you some bonus points for sure. Means you can travel light and not have to worry about moving and transferring and lugging a lot of provisions when you should be getting your ass out of Dodge.
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Originally Posted by DWB
3) Do we get caught somewhere else, like on holiday or in another country? If so, we're FUCKED.
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Not nessessarily. For one thing one can still carry some essential bug-out items in a backpack even while on vacation. A small firstaid kit, a small fishing kit with pocket knife, some cereal bars and meal replacement bars, a few small but valuable barter items, etc. Stuff that doesn't weigh a lot or take up a lot of room but can get you far. It might not sound like much but it's something more than most would have, and it can buy you time enough to come up with a new plan for where you are at that moment.
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Originally Posted by DWB
4) Something big happens such as a massive earthquake. Supplies are lost and it is impossible to get to the farm. There are possible injuries. Our home is destroyed. We're on our own. No idea how that one will play out, as it is going to depend on how the community handles it. If things went south, I'd do what I had to do.
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Experts would advise in such scenarios having some type of impregnable bunker on one's property, preferably one that is already stocked with at least a few months worth of provisions and a ham radio to keep aprised of what's going on outside. Also, networking with your neighbors and having them on board with being prepared is said to be a great part of any plan, as people in a community are more apt to help each other in a crisis if many are on the same page prep-wise.
In other words if your nieghbors aren't prepped at all they're more likely to come and take what you have for themselves than help you.
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Originally Posted by DWB
5) The worse case scenario, the entire power grid is down for whatever reason and an EMP or massive solar flares have knocked out all electronics. We would have to travel by foot, bicycle, or animal to the farm, and that would be a trek. There is no telling what we may encounter along the way, such as others trying to take what we have. I would do what I had to do.
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There again, that's where having a series of small caches along the way already set up would really be a huge boost to your already fairly excellent plan.
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Originally Posted by DWB
There are always things you just can't prepare for. No matter how much you try, you can always be caught by surprise by something. The only wrong move you could ever make it thinking nothing could ever happen to you.
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That's 100% spot on.
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Originally Posted by DWB
That said, where I'm at is mostly farmers. So for food I think we would be OK, as the rural areas are still pretty rural so they could lose power and not miss much. My girlfriends village just got electricity about 20 years ago, so these types of people, survivors, know how to live off the land and have been doing so for 1000s of years. Be it from homemade medicine from plants and certain tree bark to knowing what plants, grasses, roots, and berries you can eat from the jungle. It's impressive.
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There's a lot of great points in all that, and some major plusses to bolster your plan even further.
However, I'm quite certain that a funny thing happens to people in a major crisis situation. They start trusting unfamiliar faces a lot less, and start pointing weapons a lot sooner. Having a place set up in an area where your girlfriend knows people is great, but the more people there you both get to know and get friendly with the better.
Overall I have no doubt your overall preparations and plan would score you some good marks with the prepper experts. I'd look into setting up a backup water plan if I were you though. I saw one guy on an episode of Doomsday Preppers that had a homemade concrete water tank on his property. It was fireproof, bullet proof and even small bombs couldn't compromise it. Held about 400 gallons of water.
To everyone --- I know some of this stuff sounds extreme and ridiculous, but for someone who actually has a plan in place the thinking is if you're going to prepare for the worst there's no harm in taking a few extra steps towards doing it right, or at the very least 'better'. If shit ever does hit the fan a guy like Dirty here and his gf and/or family will have a lot of extra peace of mind that most of the rest of you won't enjoy.
As I said earlier, do you buy insurance? Car insurance? House insurance? Life? Medical? Hopefully you'll never need to actually use it, right? But it's nice to have it for peace of mind, right?
Think of prepping (even a little) as just another form of insurance.