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6 Months - Much of the same as now. There will be increasing rumors about a big company or two ready to fall in adult.
2 years
- Complete 100% collapse of one or two of the top porn companies. Shock and awe.
- paysite Affiliates are almost all gone (except for "affiliates" which are big tubes, freeones, big review sites, paysite owners).
- 50% of the small and medium sized programs will be gone.
- It will be fully accepted that selling paysites in this climate and making large profits is almost impossible. Even the "I work at McDonalds but make $10,000 a month and convert at 1:200! Maybe the problem is you?" guys will be silent.
- GFY will be down to under 24 posters who are mostly reps. You probably won't see me posting here.
- CCBill will be sold or news of it being sold in the past will break. If not another processor will collapse.
- Large percentages of old adult affiliates will turn to blackhat techniques and mainstream. Even the diehards.
- Paysite conversions for affiliates will average 1:6,000 if not worse.
- It will be recognized that Cams are dropping off heavily due to free alternatives.
- Google will fully filter porn results by default.
Five years
- Almost no traditional paysite affiliates. ANyone left will be doing cams or dating.
- GFY will be closed.
- Most adult companies here now will be gone.
- There will be a couple business articles with case studies on the porn industry and it's collapse.
- Between CCBill, Zombaio, Verotel only one will remain but likely more focused on mainstream or re-invented entirely.
- Major law changes for copyrights and or free porn access but it will be too little, too late to save the industry after a decade of downfall.
- I'll come across this post saved on my hard drive or on the wayback machine and laugh.
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