Where this thread is new in any way? Why anyone is replying to it rather than post a link to hundreds of threads with the same discussion made in past 5+ years here? And why to discuss this if there's no Paul Markham anymore?
Anyway,
Cam sites who are estabilished (up since let's say before 2008 or max 2009), are ok for sales trend today. I know by talking with a few owners. And by direct data: 2012 sales was higher than 2011 sales for our program (checked with accountant at tax reports); 2013 I did not made partial comparative stats yet, but should be no less than 2012 again.
Note that summer is 20-30% less sales for cam programs too (again I checked this with some bigger guys). But it recovers always.
But this does not mean, if pay site dies you should open cam sites. Most or all the new cam sites (from programs who are new, or did not had another cam site before), who launched in past 2 years it, failed (ended up as whitelabel etc.) or made no profit yet (they're in loss, wheter or not they will admit it). So opening a pay site it may be less risky and expensive than a cam site (as long as you're not willing to do an holywood studio), but, the probability of profit are still limited (someone here may remember some programs/billers moving $20 million a month in early 2000's... that's sure gone times).
What about open ad networks for tubes instead?
