At the moment it looks like he will be re-elected. All of the democrats running are morons, which is typical, as the party process only pushes those at the top of the looney bin to the speaker circuit.
The only way Bush will be defeated is if something like what happened to his father happens - a completely unknown exciting candidate like Clinton suddenly emerges, or a conservative third party candidate draws 10% or so of the vote away from him.
Most people are smart enough to know that that cyclical econmic trends span presidential terms and are largely immune to short term policies anyway.
I don't agree with some of Bush policy - the pandering to the religious right makes me ill, but its bearable because he needs them to get elected.
Overall most Americans give him high marks. He has the "Go Fuck Yourself" kind of attitude we love, and nobody gives a shit if he rubs Europeans the wrong way, they'll all be back begging for help with their next annual crisis anyway.
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