Biggy

Wrong. Not to sound like an arrogant American but Putin has overplayed his hand. Ukraine will need both Russia and the West to be a healthy country. This is what the smartest minds on the situation say, from Henry Kissinger, to Ukraine's billionaires.

But you're wrong because Russia's economy isn't strong. It's been hammered. It's also tied to commodities which are taking a dive right now, as China slows down. And if Russia moves forward, they will piss off the rest of the world as in all westernized countries. The US has a ton of natural gas (in addition to oil, etc), however there's a ban on exporting it. Shit, we'll import it all day long and give out IOUs and issue more debt, but make no mistake - we sit on a fuck ton of reserves, as we enact environmental laws that lower our dependence on foreign energy (oil imports are down 25% in the last 5 years to the US, as car companies and other companies are forced to become more energy efficient). The ban on exports can change when needed. Israel also sits on a lot of natural gas - and who sticks up for Iran? If the world really wanted to, it would not be that hard to remove dependence from Russian energy. It won't happen overnight but the more Putin tinkers, the more he's going to awake some sleeping beasts, the way Reagan came in and cleaned up house after Carter got played for being a pussy. You might remember Carter's successor, Ronald Reagan and what he did to the former Soviet Union... Also, the collapse of the ruble meant the end of the Boris Yeltsin regime. Mind you, Putin is likely the world's richest guy. He doesn't want to see Russian energy dependence go down.

And Obama isn't going to be in power forever. The next guy, is going to be remarkably tough on Putin / Russia. That's how it works in countries with free elections and rotating leaders. Obama only has another 2 years, and the next guy he won't be able to play as easy, and the Ukraine situation will play out over years.

My prediction: some deal will be cut where Ukraine moves to a more westernized country, but Putin can retain control of his interests he cares about, and eventually he will pull back his troops. The region he has troops in are obviously huge supporters and he'll want a way out where he can still look good / tough, but also not fear the lashback of going all in. This is a card he had up his sleeve, but having a westernized country so close to home has obviously rattled him. In future showdowns, people will now no longer give him the benefit of the doubt.