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I run cam sites, so I have access to lots of data, thousands of users across years, still, to figure the users behaviour it is not so easy. The first thing to do, it is to divide the users by type, since not all users do the same. Let me briefly list some types:

- New users, one time try, then gone: these are most of the new signups. people who never paid in cam sites, try one time a small amount like $20 up to max $100 across a day or maybe a week, then gone forever. They are curious, try, then figure it was not worth spending any money really, but wanted to try. These guys are often married or with gf, not "experts" of paying online for porn - in fact at times, the wife write emails to the biller asking what's that expense about, and we reply: "we tell this only to the cardholder, your is not the name or email of the cardholder", and so on. The tips/private coming from these guys will drop when the cam site reduce advertising or is being saturated and dropped by affiliates, and leaved only with old regular users tips.

- New users, spend a lot for a period, then gone: these never paid for cam sites before, but when they do the first time, spend "too much", just they deposit in small pieces many times, without figure the total. When they get the bill (weeks later), that is a total sum in the bank statement, so they figure how much it is, and they stop, or reduce drastically. At times, they stop because they find real girlfriend or prefer escorts etc., these people are not shy or afraid of meet real women, so a cam girl big and regular expense it looks silly. This is the type of users the OP talked about, of course there's more of these when the cam site is being advertised and promoted, less when the program is less new or promoted.

- Regular stable users, either whale or small: these are "pro" cam customers, they're 30 or older and normally live alone or are away from wife lots of time for work or other reasons, and are not types to go to prostitutes or get in-person gf's. They simply are ok with cam girls, they're shy or afraid (or feel guilty) of real gf/escort, and their life status may not change in next 10+ years, that's simply final. Depending if they're wealty or not, they will be whale or not, but they will spend for many years (if not all rest of their life) a certain amount of money with cam girls every month - either one cam girl only, or several - but the longest users really are targeting multi-girl. Since these users keep spending for years, one of these it is worth 100 or 1000 of other type of users.

A consideration on regular stable users: a cam girl could think that since these stable users do not reduce the monthly spending, then you as a cam girl should get the same tips per month from at least this segment of users. However if you are a single cam girl, you share these regular users with other girls in the cam site, so if there are more new girls added, you as an "old" cam girl will get a less % of the regular users tips share. Further, regular stable users are members of every cam site, at least 3-5 sites each (or, they would not be such pro users), so you share these users with every cam girl not only of the site you are in, but of all the cam sites really. While there are the same number of cam sites around (or perhaps, less, since these are closing more than new ones are setup), it is an easy to verify fact, that there are more cam girls today, than there was a few years ago, and in particular new cam girls. Even if they are online for a month then quit, still they are there, new, distracting the stable users away from the old, known cam girls.

So, to answer the OP specifically, really the issue if a single cam girl (even with 20,000 followers) seeing lower earnings after some time (issue many reported), it is just that there's so many more and new models being added in the same cam site, and in other ones that are known and visited by the same users, who in the past followed the girl. You may check that those 20,000 followers, recently followed someone else, simply, and since their time is limited, they will choice to visit newer girls rather than old.

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