You're theory of the "tubes will run out of content" doesn't totally apply. There may come a time when tubes produce their own content themselves. They make a hell of a lot more than most paysites do so it's not like they can't afford to. Now, can they afford to shoot enough to update 20-50 videos a day? Likely not or if they do they won't want to spend that much. But remember after user uploads weren't enough to quench the thirst of surfers And they wanted to create an HD section they could charge for, they dropped millions on complete DVD libraries from many content sellers like it was nothing.
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