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The maths seems to be based on too few factors. I think looking at just one planet shows the problem, for example our planet had life for hundreds of thousands of year with the dinosaurs, it was a fluke that ape creatures with some intelligence took over, and so far for less than a million years.
In the space of 30 years, a second time in the life of the galaxy, we have put life on the planet at risk dozens of times.
Intelligence may be too dangerous for survival.
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