There's also another way to look at this as I've been reading today. Say the OPEC countries push things too far, which they seem to want to do in order to kill the shale and for other reasons, and therefore the oil industry is dropping capital spending to stem losses. You could have a situation 5 years from now (according to some insiders) where oil could completely flip in the opposite direction:
BBC News - Eni warns oil may shoot up to $200 without Opec cuts
In other words, don't necessarily just be looking for a recovery but a *proper* reversal as has happened in so many commodity stories over the years..... that would give your today buys in oil serious ROI.