02-08-2015, 12:42 PM
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The People's Post
Industry Role:
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: invisible 7-11
Posts: 63,993
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Originally Posted by FiReC
Think of the dinosaurs, those mother fuckers were never getting of this rock and they had a few hundred million years to get it right, and now they gone. Even if there were a bunch of 'dinosaur' planets everywhere, what do you think the chances are that the existence of two advanced civilizations would ever intersect in a 13 x 1000 million years timeline (human ancestors only around last 6 million years) ?
Our timeline of earth being 4.5 billion years old (and us being here) is our timeline, that means every other galaxy,solar system,star and planet has its own timeline with life development timelines different from each other in the scale of 100's of millions of years. Good luck matching up those timelines where the most advanced intersect each other to the same moment in time where they can actually meet.
It seems improbable that the timelines would ever match up, now add in the whole fucking distance between life in the universe, and you are basically at a chance of 0 for life forms as advanced as us to run into each other.
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Originally Posted by Phoenix
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Originally Posted by HarleyMorgan
I like this  |
I cam across this while researching this topic for my first thread on it all, if y'all are interested, it does suggest that the maths supports the Milky Way being colonized by now
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the Galaxy should be colonized by now:
To arrive at their conclusion Dr Hair and Mr Hedman assumed that outer space is dotted with solar systems, about five light years apart. They then asked how quickly a single civilisation armed with the requisite technology would spread its tentacles, depending on the degree of colonising zeal, expressed as the probability that intelligent beings decide to hop from one planet to the next in 1,000 years (500 years for the trip, at a modest one-tenth of the speed of light, and another 500 years to prepare for the next hop).
All these numbers are necessarily moot. If the vast majority of planets is not suitable, for instance, the average distance for a successful expedition might be much more than five light years. And advanced beings might not need five Earth centuries to get up to speed before they redeploy. However, Dr Hair and Mr Hedman can tweak their probabilities to reflect a range of possible conditions. Using what they believe to be conservative assumptions (as low as one chance in four of embarking on a colonising mission in 1,000 years), they calculated that any galactic empire would have spread outwards from its home planet at about 0.25% of the speed of light. The result is that after 50m years it would extend over 130,000 light years, with zealous colonisers moving in a relatively uniform cloud and more reticent ones protruding from a central blob. Since the Milky Way is estimated to be 100,000-120,000 light years across, outposts would be sprinkled throughout the galaxy, even if the home planet were, like Earth, located on the periphery.
Crucially, even in slow-expansion scenario, the protrusions eventually coalesce. After 250,000 years, which the model has so far had the time to simulate, the biggest gaps are no larger than 30 light years across. Dr Hair thinks they should grow no bigger as his virtual colonisation progresses. That is easily small enough for man's first sufficiently powerful radio transmissions (in the early 20th century) to have been detected and for a reply to have reached Earth (which has been actively listening out for such messages since the 1960s). And though 50m years may sound a lot, if intelligent life did evolve more than once, it could easily have done so billions of years before this happened on Earth. All this suggests, Dr Hair and Mr Hedman fear, that humans really do have the Milky Way to themselves. Either that or the neighbours are a particularly timid bunch.
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Sentient Developments: New mathematical study reveals that our Galaxy should have been colonized by now |
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