Quote:
Originally Posted by Robbie
They just guess.
|
It's true they cannot predict the future but they're not guessing. These are projections which are not that difficult to make if you ignore black swans etc. For example, now that we have a slow down in China they're probably projecting forward at sub 7% growth instead of above, for the next few years.
You just take the GDP figure and then compound the GDP growth year on year.
As for China, well China has already over taken the US in many different metrics but it will take a LOT longer for China to surpass the US in terms of GDP which is the most important economy size metric. Their figures are probably not that far off.
There is a chance that China would be ahead of the US by then but I really doubt it will come much earlier than, say 2028. Probably better for China if they get quality slower growth instead of highly leveraged faster growth .
China is $10 trillion GDP approx.
USA is a $17 trillion GDP approx.