Quote:
Originally Posted by kane
To be fair it was all around minority voters and young voters.
If we go back to 2004 John Kerry got 88% of the black vote while Bush got 11%.
Kerry got 53% of Hispanic voters and Bush got 44%.
Kerry got 56% of voters age 18-29. Bush got 43%
Now we jump forward to 2012.
Obama got 93% of black vote. Romney got 6%
Obama got 71% of the Hispanic vote. Romney got 27%
Obama got 60% of the 18-29 vote and Romney got 37%
In all three of those areas Romney did worse, in some cases much worse, than did Bush.
That's the difference in the election. Most of the other major categories of these two elections look very similar.
So it wasn't just black people that put Obama in office. It was minorities in general and young voters. Both of those demographics will be larger in 2016 than they were in 2012. Whoever can win those demographics over likely will win the white house.
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numbers don't lie. going on the numbers you cite, specifically Bush garnering more of the minority vote than Romney suggests that those votes can and will be gained back by Jeb Bush.
But i certainly recall reading that BO increased black voter enthusiasm and consequently, black voter turnout. I would figure those people are not going to be at all excited about Hillary. Heck, even BO won't say anything too positive re: Hillary right now. She has a very tough road to ho.