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Hillary or the Dem candidate will win 85-90% of the A.A vote, but what will the turnout be. Obama levels, or back to normal levels? Less turnout, and less % of that vote, could be important here.
According to Census.gov, the following number of votes were cast by A.A's rounded.
2000 - 12,917,000
2004 - 14,016,000
2008 - 16,133,000
2012 - 17,813,000 (record level of 66.2% of the eligible voters)
So you have about 3 million or so voters that may or may not vote in an normal election. Plus its unlikely Hillary is able to get 93-97% of that vote like Obama did.
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