Originally Posted by kane

Average African American voter turnout in the two election prior to 2008 was around 58% (right in line with the general nationwide average) those numbers increased to 60% and then 62% in 2008 and 2012 respectively. So, yes, Obama did increase the number of black voters that turned out. But that is nationwide. How many of those people lived in states that were actually battleground states?

I don't doubt that it had an impact. I am simply saying there is a lot more to it.

Hillary will get the black vote. Every democrat can count on that. Every democrat gets at least 84-90% of the black vote without even courting them. Bush spoke Spanish and actively courted the Hispanic voters and he had a history of having Hispanics on his cabinet and in positions of power when he was Governor or Texas. You can say a lot about Bush, but he wasn't a racist and didn't come off like one in the least and that helped him.

Things have changed in the last two election cycles. The democrats are actively trying to bring about immigration reform knowing that if they can pull it off it will guarantee them the Hispanic vote for decades to come. Republicans are having to walk a tightrope. They too want those voters, but their base is very much against most immigration reform.

Can Jeb get more Hispanic voters and young voters? Anything is possible. Jeb also speaks Spanish and his wife was born in Mexico. In Florida he did well with Hispanic and young voters when he was running for Governor. To me here is the big question. If it comes down to Hillary V. Bush the big fight will be for those votes. Bill Clinton won Hispanic voters in a landslide. Young people seem to like Hillary and the Clintons in general. So there will be a big fight for these votes. Can Jeb do what it takes to pull them from Hillary while not pissing off his base. Without the base he can't win. Without the minorities and young voters he can't win (the same goes for Hillary) the contest could be determined by who walks that tightrope better. Hillary likely has the advantage because she can push for big immigration reforms and not piss off her base.

Of course Hillary also has the problem of getting her base to the polls. The liberals are notorious for staying home on election day.