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Originally Posted by GFED
just from my understanding of the cycles and phases of recession. i could be wrong, i've only started on nov 2014.
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Well its possible for the FED to hike one more time like 0.25% since they don't want to lose credibility but if you look at the way the the numbers are coming out and the market is behaving they're expecting a higher probability of rates being cut and going negative. Negative rates is like the main topic of discussion on Bloomberg right now.
The way Gold has moved over the last couple of weeks, it could erase all its USD losses over the last three years this year which means it could rise 40% this year and that would see over $1500/oz this year but I suspect it will sell off at year end if the dollar is weak enough by then.
I doubt it will get that high but I mean, its possible. We're up 15% already in basically first six weeks (20% in some currencies) of the year so what does the rest of the year hold?