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Trump is no ordinary candidate (comparing to all those previous) so that method of predicting may be very off due to this fact.
Also, even if Trump was ordinary republican - fact that there is bigger percentage of libbies and bigger percentage of minorities (both are heavily democrat) compared to all of those previous elections may not give us that 96% chance of the model being correct (because that success rate is for those different times in terms of minority and libby population).
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