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There is one minor flaw in your theory. Gay people were gay before they were allowed to get married. Personally, I don't subscribe to the theory that people choose to be gay. You were born gay or not. Allowing gay marriage isn't going to suddenly create more gay people.
Still, allowing gay people to marry, in theory, might actually create more births because these days may gay couples are adopting. The more people adopt the, potentially, more women will consider putting a baby up for adoption as opposed to having an abortion.
So it is possible your entire theory is actually backwards.
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