Van Jones is a smart dude, but ....
Delegate Calculator - What Would It Take To Turn The Blue States Red
Blacks will not turn out like they did for Obama, at 66%. He would need to get 30% of the black vote at 55%+ turnout to beat her, not 15%. I doubt he'll get 30%. However, whites with no college degree will turn out in greater numbers. That, based on what he has said, seems to be his strategy, to take back the Reagan democrats.