Quote:
Originally Posted by kane
Here is a little look into the uphill battle Trump has ahead of him. I took this from electoral-vote.com
"As the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza points out, there are 19 states plus D.C. that the Democrats have won in every election from 1992 to 2012. Together they add up to 242 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.A new general-election poll of a Clinton-Trump matchup shows Clinton ahead by 13 points in Florida, a state with 29 electoral votes. A simple sum shows 242 + 29 = 271. Game over."
This means for Trump to win he either needs to take some democrat strong states away from Hillary or he will basically have to win all of the battleground states. Neither are easy prospects.
So far nothing has gone as expected with this election so there is no reason to think that things can't change and strange things can't happen, but it is pretty clear, if Trump wants to win he has a major uphill climb ahead of him.
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I quoted that same article in another thread. The electoral college is 50 points towards democrats. In the primaries, as a democrat, you want big wins. In the general, you want to win by 1000 votes and collect all the electoral votes. Only two states don't use that method.
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Colorado
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Iowa
Nevada
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Maine
Michigan
are the states that Obama won by less than 10%. In particular Florida he won by <1%, Ohio by 3%, and Virginia by 4%. Trump could win all those and still not win. He'd also have to win Colorado, at 6%.
Obama won the popular vote by 4%. If Trump was equal, he might win the first three, but perhaps not Colorado.
He'd need to be up by 3% at least in the popular vote to be assured of winning.