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This race comes down to just a few things.
1. How big a % can Trump pull over from the blue dogs in the swing states with his trade and tariff message.
2. Can Clinton energize the African American vote to actually come out an vote. She will get the 90%+ of those that do vote. But can she get even close to the 2008-2012 numbers in this demo.
3. Can Clinton convince and energize the youth vote to come and vote for her. She failed at this in 2008, and she failed at this so far thru the primaries in 2016.
If she can close 2 and 3, then its over. If Trump underperforms his target for #1 its over.
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