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Old 08-03-2016, 07:14 PM  
kane
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: portland, OR
Posts: 20,684
To me it is pretty simple. It seems like about 35% of the voters will vote for Trump no matter what he says or does. About 10% will waver. They want to support him, but sometimes are annoyed by him and may vote for Johnson or just not vote. It is starting to look like around 45% of the vote is his ceiling. That said, a good performance in the debates can turn the tide in many ways for him. He will focus on the battleground states and all he will need is to do well in a handful of those states and it will be close.

If Trump does poorly in the debates, or refuses to debate, it is over for him. The only question will be how large Clinton's margin of victory is.

Here is something I find interesting. Trump is already saying he feels the general election is going to be rigged. In most cases the loser congratulates the winner, makes a nice concession speech and moves on. I think if Trump loses he will light the place on fire and burn it to the ground with him. He might give a very angry speech calling the election a sham and turning the Clinton hate up to the max. It might be the first post-election tantrum we have ever seen.
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