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Originally Posted by Joshua G
fair enough. i feel that, with the broadest measures of public opinion showing a split vote, things that have not happened yet will ultimately decide this one. things nobody can predict, like the terror attacks, or economic bulls/bears. everyone on the left thinks she will wax trump at debating. but she cant do a press conference. trump is going to lead her into a trap, i dont know how. but he is more cunning than she is.
what else can i say, but the mood of the voters is change. there are not 2 change candidates running, just 1.
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There is so much time left between now and the election anything could happen.
At this point I feel like about 35% of the people are going to vote for Trump no matter what he says, does or what happens. I think about 40% will vote Clinton no matter what. It is what that last 25% does that matters.
I think the debates will play a big factor in this election. I don't think Hillary will wax him, but I also don't think he is going to trap her or that he is all that cunning when it comes to debates. The Republican debates were all about sound bites which he is great at, but these debates will be long form and it will be just him and her (and maybe Johnson). He is going to have to give more than just sound bites. I was reading today about how the two are preparing for the debates. Hillary is pouring over policy books, and studying every aspect of everything that could be covered. She is going to have practice debates on a stage that is identical to the one they will be on. She will be so prepared there is likely not a question she can be asked that she won't be ready for. Trump is golfing with people like Giuliani and Ailes and getting their input. I think he is smart enough to know it will take more than that to do well, but I don't know how much work he is willing to put in it. Still, I think most of the burden falls on Trump in the first debate. So long as Hillary doesn't implode she will likely come out of it doing okay, but Trump is going to have to impress people.
Adding to this is Johnson who is polling at 10-11% in some polls. If he can manage to get in the debates it will likely spell doom for Trump. The polls show he actually pulls voters from both candidates, but he pulls more away from Trump than Hillary and right now Trump needs every single voter he can find.