Quote:
Originally Posted by crockett
Yes but the question is both sides have a large number of unsatisfied people with the choices they have been given. Many Republicans hate Trump and many Democrats hate Hillary.
The deciding factor for this election, will be those unsatisfied voters. Will Republicans that hate Trump vote for the sake of the party or will Democrats that hate Hillary show up and vote to try and block Trump???
That will be the deciding factor not the undecideds but those that hate both choices. On the Republican side they have the Gary Johnson issue which many Republicans are likely to for for him because he's kinda a Republican. On the Democrat side usually unhappy voters don't show up to vote.
I still think Hillary will likely win, but she and the DNC have fucked this election up a lot by pissing off the millennials and ignoring their issues which Sander was the flag bearer for. Hillary/DNC have taken an election which should of been a easy win and made it a very close race..
|
Sure, both sides are not happy, but I think when it comes down to it most of those unsatisfied people will end up voting for the person from their party. Some won't, but most will because of the alternative.
I think Hillary will win this for a few reasons.
1. Trump can't seem to get more than about 44% in the national polls and he normally hangs around 40%.
2. Trump blew it during the debate. I didn't see the whole thing, but I saw two very damning clips. He bashed Rosie O'Donnel (again) when asked about dealing with women which likely will turn off some female independents and his plan for fixing the problems in African American communities is Stop and Frisk. He was making some inroads with black voters, but that will turn most of them off in a hurry. These might not cost him a ton of voters, but in this election, every vote (especially in battleground states) will be important.
3. Hillary's ground game. In most of the battleground states Hillary has multiple offices and many volunteers and paid employees while Trump has very little or nothing at all. Many experts think a good ground game can be worth 1-3% more votes on election day because they will work hard to get their supporters to the polls. In a very close election that 1-3% could be the difference between winning and losing.Take, for example, Florida. Trump must win Florida or it is over for him. Hillary has 34 offices in Florida. Trump has 1. In Pennsylvania, another state Trump must win he has 2 offices and Hillary has 36. Trump literally has about 80 total people on his staff and Clinton has 800.
4. Trump seems out of tricks. The last I read there are between 8-13% of likely voters that remain undecided. The only people in that group that matter are those that live in battleground states. Trump doesn't seem to have any ideas or new ways of convincing these people to vote for him. Hillary doesn't really either, but she needs them less than he does because she has a ton of paths to victory and he only has a few.
What it is going to come down to is getting your supporters to turn out and I think Hillary with her large staff and ground game will do a little better at this. It also comes down to one basic question for the undecided voters: Are they willing to roll the dice on Trump or will they stay with the known quantity and Clinton. I have said many times I think a lot of people say they want change, but they really don't, so I think more of these people will hold their nose and vote Clinton.
Shit, just realized this is a wall of text lol.