Quote:
Originally Posted by onwebcam
You are aware Gallup no longer does polling because they were doing this and "picked" the wrong winner several times in a row.
Also there was a higher, in fact record high, turnout of Republican voters in the Primaries so the truth is its probably about an even percentage for this race.
Simply put there's not just one factor involved.
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A record high turnout of Republicans doesn't affect the polling data. They simply ask if you are registered to a party and who you plan to vote for. If the person says they are a registered Democrat and plan to vote for Hillary, you have to take them at their word. Maybe they won't vote for her come election day, but that doesn't mean the poll is wrong because the poll reflects the answers given to the questions asked.
I have said for a while this election may come down to turnout. The independents are clearly not happy with either candidate nor, frankly, are many members of either of the parties. Trump has a fired up core of supporters, and Hillary has a great ground game in place. Whoever can get more of their base to the polls on election day may well win this election.
Still, if you have 10 people and 4 of them are Republicans, 6 of them are Democrats, and 4 are independents you can't ignore one Democrat and go out and find another Republican to make it "fair" because that doesn't reflect the political make-up of the country.