10-30-2016, 08:41 AM
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Fake Nick 1.0
Industry Role:
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Rent free, your head
Posts: 27,653
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Biggy
I don't think it matters. Primaries, rallies, you are really talking about a very passionate subset and subgroup of the population. The elections are won based upon the independents and middle voters, and the general population. People like me, who really don't give a shit and hate both candidates.
Look, Polls for the most part are accurate. Are they all accurate? Nope. But are they all wrong simultaneously? Probably not. Let's take the most extreme recent case of Brexit. 2-3 weeks before Brexit was clearly ahead in the polls, but then the week before the polls began to change, and clearly illustrated clear momentum of Brexit passing. The catalysts were in place in that last week, and the change and momentum was reflected in the polls. When that election happened, it really was a true toss up on election day. Some of the polls had begin to change and capture the momentum of the pro-Brexit vote.
If you look at all the polls today, he is behind, by a lot. And if Trump was up in the polls, we would all know about because he would be telling us how shitty Hillary is doing in the polls, just like he did to all the other Republicans during primary season. If you believe every poll and polls in general are wrong, then you have the great financial opportunity in front of you. You can place a bet on the election and get fantastic odds, because those odds are built off of the polls which you don't trust.
If you want to know where I stand on my personal opinion, I stopped caring when Jeb Bush bowed out. He should have been the candidate, and he would have won, and I would have voted for him.
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Inde's are switching to Trump in droves.. 22pt move in 3 days (pre-friday) on ABC poll. Simply put the honeymoon is over and everyone is now asking themselves, "Who do I want to wake up to the next 4 years? A crooked lying old hag with the establishment or a playboy billionaire change agent?"
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