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Originally Posted by Joshua G
its true. for all the jabbering of a popular vote win by hilary, it was 1% nationally, & under 1% difference in key swing states.
point is though, its not a slam dunk that the dems party in 18. the trend of a blowback vote is there. but another factoid not well discussed is the dem turnout is bad in mid-terms. the GOP's gains in 10, 14, have a lot to do with talk radio, & people with jobs sitting in their commutes who are solid voters. more solid then the dem coalitions when theres no president to vote for.
& when you see the dems are re-electing the same old same old, things are gonna be a mess for the dem base in 18. #demexit looks like the left wing tea party brewing.
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Sure, the dems are electing the same old people, but other than POTUS, so are the repubs. When it comes to Congress they have about a 10% approval rating, but about a 90% re-election rate. Electing the same old people didn't stop the repubs taking back the House and Senate from the dems under Obama or the dems from doing so under Bush.
I really think it will come down to Trump and his performance. There is already a large group that hates Trump. If he doesn't do well it could have repubs not too eager to get out and vote in 18 and it could fire dems up. Of course, if Trump does well it could have just the reverse effect.
I think in 18 the repubs will hold the Senate, the map for them that year heavily favors them, but I think the dems will make a strong run at the House. I don't know if they will take it back, but I think they will gain seats if nothing else.