Quote:
Originally Posted by Elli
This one is a bit trickier, but again, it's a non-story.
Three professors at Old Virginia U have looked at a study ( CCES) that queried people BEFORE THEY VOTED on who they intended to vote for and then came back later to survey them about the election. The survey data HAVE NOT BEEN DELIVERED YET.
The pre-election survey ( CCES Pre-Election Survey, 2016 | CCES) was released in November, and covered about 84k "likely voters." There is no mention of non-citizen voters, just unregistered voters. Is this the number our esteemed professors are looking at and extrapolating from?
I have emailed the head of the study to ask about the non-citizenship data. Hopefully there is a response coming in the media, as their research is being cited as a source without it even being released yet.
( Announcing the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study | CCES)
"Schedule
The study will be fielded in October and November 2016 (pre- and post-election waves). Survey data will be delivered by March 2017, and data matched to the voter files will be delivered in July 2017." |
The head of the CCES study replied to me! She says:
Thank you for your email. The organizers of the CCES addressed this topic in a piece that can be found via the link below:
The Perils of Cherry Picking Low Frequency Events in Large Sample Surveys | CCES
If you are interested in seeing the datasets, they are all published online through Dataverse; it may be easiest to begin with the links at the left-hand side of the above-linked page and search from there. Thank you again, and I hope that it helps to clarify things.
Best regards,
Liz
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That page is from 2014 and states "The example for this analysis is Richman, Chattha, and Earnest (2014), which presents a biased estimate of the rate at which non-citizens voted in recent elections. The results, we show, are completely accounted for by very low frequency measurement error; further, the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0."
So, not only is the Richman study from 2014 and therefore based on a completely different election cycle than Trump's, it is biased and incorrect.
Yet again, this story is FALSE and MISLEADING: Hillary Clinton received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, bolsters Trump argument, study finds - Washington Times
Do your fucking homework before trying to pull one over on the public. Jesus.