Originally Posted by timlover

Regardless of whether or not you think it was a great speech, there are certain numerical facts that are not going to change.

1) You can't spend your entire presidency giving speeches to only your base in airport hangers.

2) When you have an approval rating of 38% nationally that is continuing to slide, that should tell you that there are 62% of Americans who aren't going to airport hangers to listen to him.

3) Trumps base accounts for about 40% of the conservative party. That means that there is 60% of people of the GOP that are willing to turn their backs on him should the situation arise.

Analysis. Trump's message is not only failing to reach ANY Democrats, his reach outside of his base only extends via the goodwill of the GOP and their base. For every percentage point nationally that he drops, these are GOP base voters fleeing. Not Democrats. It's not like the lost percentages are a mixture of positive gains in approval by Democrats or Independents thinking he is doing a bang up job.

The GOP base is starting to bleed out. When they start running harder, they will have to have somewhere to go. The GOP will have to decide then to get rid of Trump, or lose voters to Democrats or other parties.

The GOP is not dependent on the Trump base to carry them. Trump is though, dependent on the GOP base.

2018 campaigns will be underway soon. If his approval ratings are as dismal as they are now, the GOP will cut bait from him and impeach his ass for Pence.

This it the cut and dry of it. GOP senators and representatives are not going to sit by idly and let Trump drag their careers down the toilet, nor their majorities.

Making concessions and moving closer to the center is the only way approval ratings go up. Trump would have to make a major policy shift for this to happen. Frankly, he's already burnt his bridges on that anyways regardless if he tried to do it. He's already dead weight on the back of the GOP. That's the downfall of a scorched earth campaign.

Politics is learning how to pick your fights and your battles. Trump wants to fight everybody and he never can turn down a battle when presented. He's fighting on so many fronts that his base support simply can't support him. Just like a thinned out supply line. Had he came into office and shored up his connections, built a few bridges, improved his communications lines. He would have something to stand and build on.

Trump sees this presidency as a war. A hostile takeover. Ironically the guy has pushed his image as a master builder of things and the only thing he has built is a growing opposition to his war on America. You can't war with the establishment at the same time you are sticking your hand out asking for a cookie from it.

This is his downfall. You can't govern a country the way you run a business enterprise. They have a fundamentally different architecture and adhere to a completely different set of constraints. You might as well be trying to play a game of baseball using the Patriots offense playbook. What do you get? Confusion on the field. Errors. Penalties.

All it will take is just time for Trump's vision to fail. As the errors mount up and the political miscalculations mount, the consequences will become more visible to the American people. Eventually even his base. The scariest part of that is WTF has to happen that horrible to convince all these deluded people to finally get off the Titanic and admit its taking on water because its idiot Captain hit an iceberg.

There is no give Trump a chance because Trump won't give himself a chance. He won't change. Ever. He will go down with the ship and try to take as many people as he can when that happens. He doesn't understand that there is a limit and a line on political capital. He is running out of it. He has no knowledge or desire to obtain more of it. He's just spending spending spending with every tweet and ridiculous act.

Having a successful Presidency and getting re-elected requires making concessions. The only concessions Trump is interested in making are the ones that sell his shitty water and hot dogs on his golf course at the 9th tee clubhouse.