crockett

Putin doesn't give a fuck about Assad, Putin cares about the Russian Military base in Syria. It's their only real way to project influence in the region. This is the reason Russia is helping Assad against ISIS & the Rebels. Otherwise they couldn't give a flying fuck.

Russia doesn't even have a base in Iran, so if Assad falls, they can be pushed out of Syria giving them nowhere in the ME to have a point of influence.

Russia will cave on this.. they will pressure Assad to do nothing. Basically Assad stepped over the line using chemical weapons "again".. Yesterday Russia made excuses trying to shift blame, but Putin said something important "Russian support for Assad was not unconditional"..

Next we have 59 tomahawks coming down on the Syrian airfield the chemical attack was launched from. It just so happens Russian troops also use that airfield. We gave Russia a warning before the attack so they didn't have any casualties which also meant that obviously Assad's forces would receive the warning from Russia..

We targeted mostly soft targets, hitting radars, refueling rigs, a few planes ect.. We didn't destroy the runways or even any hangers from what I saw. This was all a show of force to tell Assad NOT to step over the line again. Basically a very stern warning and finger waving..

Now it's wait and see mode. We wait to see what Assad does next. Will he take the warning or will he run head first into the wall?

Basically, this was very standard response for this kind of situation. It's a simple warning that says we wont accept the use of chemical weapons. This was a warning to both Assad but more importantly to Russia that they need to keep him in check or remove him if they want to keep their military base in Syria.

The interesting thing, is we attacked a military target that Russia shares with Syria's army, gave Russia advance warning and told Russia to stand down.. Just let that sink in.. 59 tomahawks just hit a base with Russian military and they stood down.. Russia will talk tough in the media and have puffy chest, but it's very clear they understand there is not much they can do to stop us in Syria if we choose to do something..

My bet is Russia will move to remove Assad to be able to keep their base.. I'd guess that Russia will be quite Ok with a regime change as long as they feel they have majority influence in Syria & can keep their base. I'm betting Putin wil understand he can't escalate this because he will lose and likely lose their only base in the region. Putin will likely accept a regime change to satisfy the Rebels but still give Russia influence so they can deal with ISIS and be done before it gets out of hand..