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Originally Posted by MrBaldBastard
Whys this unexpected? Trump pulled out of TPP day one of his presidency and it was the only thing that would of kept China out of the South Pacific, pulling out was basically giving China the green light to expand there. Every country in that region now on Chinas payroll.
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I think pulling out was the correct thing to do. The only thing the TTP did was raise our wages - It did not change the United States employment numbers.
Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders backs it too.
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Trade accounted for just 13% of America's lost factory jobs. 88% of the jobs were taken by robots.
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Look at Apple's main supplier Foxconn - They replaced 60,000 factory workers with robots.
You can not blame lost jobs entirely on Trump when big companies are automating their production factories.
How does that fall on Trump's decision to pull out of the TPP ? - It doesn't.
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Losers:
Singapore: Singapore was one of the co-founders of the TPP's predecessor, and was a big backer of the deal in the region. The small island state relies on trade for its economy to grow. It's also home to one of the biggest ports in the region. It was hoping to benefit from an increase in services such as shipping and trade financing that it was expecting to follow from more regional and global trade.
Vietnam: According to this study by the Petersen Institute, Vietnam was expected to benefit the most from the TPP because it is still a relatively closed economy. This trade deal would have given it tariff free access for its rice, seafood, textiles and low-end manufactured goods. Some estimates say Vietnam could have seen a 10% boost to its economy by 2025 under the TPP.
Malaysia: According to that same Petersen study, Malaysia could see its economy grow by 5.5% in the same period because of the pact, which was set to give it access to the US for its palm oil exports, but at the same time under the rules of the agreement it had to agree to higher international labour standards.
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Winners:
The central premise of the US-backed TPP was: join our party, we'll all get rich together, and we'll all abide by international standards. Everybody wins.
Except now that's no longer true - instead, the biggest winner is now the country who was never included in the TPP to begin with...
China: As my colleague Carrie Gracie explains, China is well placed to step into the US's global footprint with both its regional trade deal alternative, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership deal, and it's massive and expensive One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, which aims to build roads, ports and highways through much of Asia.
Other countries that have not joined the TPP (including Thailand, the Philippines and others who are close to China like Laos and Cambodia for instance, could also stand to gain from RCEP and OBOR.)
This is typically the role the US has played in the past few decades in Asia, through US financial bodies and global institutions.
Some analysts say China has been playing the "New Great Game" in Asia (a reference to the power rivalry we saw in the 19th century in Central Asia), grabbing any opportunity it can find to increase its influence in the region.
Mr Trump may have just handed Beijing the chance it has been looking for.
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