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Things haven't been going how they've historically gone, but they have been going by the polls. The fact that a "progressive" is 4 points ahead in Florida is telling.
Look at the Lamb v Saccone:
Final Results -- -- -- 49.8 49.6 Lamb +0.2
RCP Average 3/1 - 3/11 -- -- 47.0 45.0 Lamb +2.0
So even though it was an 18pt republican district, it went pretty much by by the polls.
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