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VRPdommy · 10-11-2018, 08:46 PM

I'm not more particularly worried about it any more than I have been for the last year. (think about that)

But if the economy gets hit with 'rapid' rising costs, and it is getting a double whammy from both the tariff war and the cost of energy, it affects spending and the banks will have a new issue with the over extended loans it has made to the fracking industry (among others) as a quick decline or negative growth rate ensues. We can not afford a recession. Slow growth is OK but not in the negative.

Right now, the market is just at the 'discovery phase' of the issues. Many are not sure the depth of the problem. The uncertainty will keep the market from making any major gains from the 100 day moving average for a while until that changes.
probably be up and down in a stale way for the next 90 to 120 days as they find the winners and losers of the current situation. Until/unless new insight can be made.

While it might seem the fed is adding insult to the injury, the alternative is much worse. Your long term growth is always at risk if inflation in the US grows at higher rates than the rest of the world in comparison. Yes that really means wage growth. Not the cost of goods and services. And that is why your buying power continues to go down with time, if you work for a living that is.
So the fed is doing it's job in place of any good political solution.

So are the current economic facts enough to keep the economy from 'overheating' or will it go negative ? that is the question.
The stock market does not like uncertainty.

One could say that that the market is not overvalued, by the means of the huge tax break being realized this year, the valuation ratios improved. But we all know that is not sustainable... or should know.

10-11-2018, 08:46 PM
VRPdommy Too lazy to set a custom title Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 10,767	I'm not more particularly worried about it any more than I have been for the last year. (think about that) But if the economy gets hit with 'rapid' rising costs, and it is getting a double whammy from both the tariff war and the cost of energy, it affects spending and the banks will have a new issue with the over extended loans it has made to the fracking industry (among others) as a quick decline or negative growth rate ensues. We can not afford a recession. Slow growth is OK but not in the negative. Right now, the market is just at the 'discovery phase' of the issues. Many are not sure the depth of the problem. The uncertainty will keep the market from making any major gains from the 100 day moving average for a while until that changes. probably be up and down in a stale way for the next 90 to 120 days as they find the winners and losers of the current situation. Until/unless new insight can be made. While it might seem the fed is adding insult to the injury, the alternative is much worse. Your long term growth is always at risk if inflation in the US grows at higher rates than the rest of the world in comparison. Yes that really means wage growth. Not the cost of goods and services. And that is why your buying power continues to go down with time, if you work for a living that is. So the fed is doing it's job in place of any good political solution. So are the current economic facts enough to keep the economy from 'overheating' or will it go negative ? that is the question. The stock market does not like uncertainty. One could say that that the market is not overvalued, by the means of the huge tax break being realized this year, the valuation ratios improved. But we all know that is not sustainable... or should know.