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Coming from someone who's probably made more money than most in doom porn for the last decade, let me weigh in. We'd be lucky if it was "just" a recession next year. Since the vast majority of you don't understand how the market mechanics work I'll fill you in. The 500+ or - swings are algorithms buying and selling, obviously. People actually don't do this all the much anymore unless you're a type of Ameritrade trader. It's actually very simple.
In a flash literally, the algo will sell a stock once it hits a certain rate, regardless. This will trip another company algo to do the same causing a domino effect and why the marked drops are getting bigger, daily. The market can't crash in a day like in 1929 because it's on a type of circuit breaker. It just simply turns off as all trading stops for that day.
This has happened a few times but the worst (October 13, 1989) was the real "Black Friday". So, there's never going to be a "big crash" as it will be an organized exit as the FED will come in and pump free (no/low) interest loans (life) to the markets. IMO, the only real capital gains in the markets these days are the fees being made off the billions on stocks/options being bought/sold as all SM gains have been lost for the year.
Finally, as someone who's been watching this for a decade from a totally different historical perspective, it's going to be far worse than a simple recession. In brief here's why. At the turn of the century, Petroleum changed everyone's lives to where it created more jobs and far more mobility. Also, more personal freedom via automobiles (1910) and far cheaper transit that enabled people to share opinions vastly creating, even more, business/jobs.
Meaning, just from 1920-29 the US economy doubled itself hitting a plateau. It took 20 years as a huge wealth disparity in part, actually created WWI. We are at a very similar stage right now due to how the internet, like petroleum, changed the world.
The internet is much different with all the social media platforms as younger people would rather get that instant crack-dopamine acceptance respect drop than to work hard and buy a house or whatever brought respect to the older generation. They don't care and I don't blame them because for them to be the next Mark Zuckerberg would be about as easy and you guessing the winning lotto numbers.
In short, society has hit a new plateau. There has to be a great change of some sort, and what scares me the most? We just can't start new world wars to cull the herd. It's going to be much much worse. That's a post for another day.
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