Quote:
Originally Posted by notinmybackyard
There are 7 billion people in the world. If 1.7 million die that works out to 0.024% of the world's population.
That's well below 1% and that makes this beyond a pathetic joke.
|
Well there are 7.8 billion people in the world now.
So that would make it even more of a pathetic joke than u stated lol.
However, the figures from the NY Times clearly state, that max 1.7m death toll is just for the US. Not the planet.
So a death rate of nearer 0.5%.
Bottom line.
Of 'confirmed cases' (which actually account for just a fraction atm of infected people).
92% have recovered. 8% have died.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
So in order to estimate the actual death rate. You need to estimate the number of people actually infected divided by the actual death rate.
Theres probably more than 10x more people with the virus than have been tested and confirmed, which would put the death rate below 1%.
Example. 8% death rate of confirmed cases. Let's say 10% people get tested and confirmed. And then 40% of say US population are infected (its likely to be much higher 50-70%). That would mean a death rate of 0.32% of the US population.
I think US population is 330m ish. So that would mean 1.056m deaths, which about somewhere in the middle of those estimates.
The virus is thought to be potentially 1000x more infectious than SARS (2003).
If so, then mass infections in the 40-80% range of population are almost inevitable over time.
It's not going away any time soon that is for sure, without some kind of miracle.