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I'm becoming increasingly concerned about the value of the USD and its ability to retain any value at all.
Main points of concern now:
- Federal troops confronting protestors in politically targeted cities. As these confrontations turn violent, the beginnings of a new civil war will inevitably be discussed. The Gun Rights groups have long said that the second amendment was designed to allow citizens to prevent a Federal Govt. attack on their freedoms. Well, the populace is very well armed, and they have access to advanced weapons that could present a serious challenge to Federal troops.
Even the talk of civil war will make the international community worry about holding US dollars that may dissolve into what, Texas dollars? California dollars?
- Covid-19: The USA is not behaving rationally to control this outbreak. There is zero chance that the disease is controlled in the US at this point. Like it or not, schools will not reopen for long, as outbreaks will happen within days of reopenings, and hospitals will overflow leading to spikes in deaths. This will force economic shut-downs, either by government decree or by the public simply not being willing to go outside because there is no hospital room. Only massive, ongoing money printing will allow the government to pay its obligations, and if you thought the printing was crazy before, you ain't seen nothing yet.
- Covid-19 again: Anti-vax movement will render any and all vaccines worthless in the USA. The rest of the world will rid themselves of the virus, but the USA will remain a pariah. US residents will remain barred from travelling anywhere in the world (as they are right now), and the economy will shut further, with no tourist entering the USA. Dollars will not flow out of US to other countries from travel, which undermines the dollar-flow that underpins the Eurodollar and carry-trades. The petrodollar also dies as oil consumption in the US becomes almost insignificant relative to the rest of the reopened world.
- Civil War again: When Donald Trump loses, he will claim that the results were fraudulent. I predict his campaign will oversee the fraudulent stuffing of mail-in ballots and mail-ballot theft for the purpose of later claiming that he can prove fraud and point to his own (albeit clandestine) actions as proof of voter fraud. With Federal troops already mobilized around the USA, his refusal to accept the results will lead to violent clashes between stormtroopers loyal to Trump and army units loyal to the constitution.
Foreign adversaries will seize on the internal conflict and act simultaneously in conflict hot spots: N. Korea will invade S. Korea, China will take over Taiwan, Iran will take military action to repel the US from Iraq, and many other conflicts will unleash.
All of this to say that in the short term, I am predicting a massive US dollar short-squeeze as the stock market crashes sometime between now and Aug. 10 as a result of new stimulus bill conflicts and the expiry of all stimulus that has kept the markets afloat. After that crash, a bill will pass with massive dollar printing attached. Another bill will need to follow quickly, and the bottom will drop out of the dollar.
So expect a US dollar strengthening in the next few weeks, followed by an unbelievably rapid decline that may end the year at close to worthless.
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