Bitcoin has been consolidating, going sideways, for 3 years and we've finally broken out of it, it is reasonable to assume we are now in a bull market. Bitcoin typically has 30-40% drops to the weekly 21 exponential moving average before bouncing and making new highs during a bull run.
A 30-40% drop from here would be slightly above $20k although the weekly 21 EMA is quite a bit lower at this time but rising quickly. Depending on where the weekly 21 ema is, 15-18k is unlikely, I would think, as that would most likely lead to us closing below the weekly 21 ema signaling an end to the bull run which is unlikely so early after 3 years of sideways.
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