I think you are right, in the reasons why they want to ban it and why they will try and how. However, I still am not sure about whether it is a sure thing that it shall get prohibited, for there is the hope that we win the battle, and specially, I think there is much more popular support and acceptance of pornography than it ever was, mostly because it is much more accessible and common than it ever was, and people will not like to have to give away one of their favourite ingredients that they use to make their life delicious.
A complete ban of pornography is not something popular opinion would support, that is my perception, but I might be wrong. People care about not showing it to little kids, but not about forbidding adults from enjoying it, mostly because they enjoy it themselves.
And, by the way, even if the payment gateways cannot process porn anymore, the fact is that there is bittorrent and other technologies to share files, as well as the traditional websites, certainly it might not be a wonderful business anymore (has it not stopped being that since more than a decade ago?), but people will continue making their amateur porn, and sharing the by then vintage jewels too.
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...Nice.
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