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pimplink · 10-07-2003, 08:02 AM

This sounds just as (falsely) deterministic as Marx' arrogant prediction in Das Kapital that a global class war is inevitable because goods will eventually be produced to such an extent that the masses cannot afford them (ever lower wages, ever higher prices = class war). Yeah...

then the mass production revolution began... then higher productivity due to information automation ... then country segmentation of manufacturing... etc etc.

Human progress is unpredictable... yet only limited by our IMAGINATION.

Quote:

Originally posted by punkworld
Due to outsourcing to poor countries and automation more and more jobs in the western world will be lost. While right now those are mainly unskilled jobs, future technology will replace skilled jobs as well.
At this time we are still able to make up for this by expansion in the service industry, the amount of human work needed in that area is limited, and will face competition from automation in the future.

The work that can't easily be replaced by automation is either highly skilled/abstract (science, engineering, programming, etc), highly skilled/social (psychology, social work, etc.), highly skilled/creative (marketing, sales, etc) or highly limited in volume (art, music, acting, etc.). Obviously, there's a lot of overlap between these fields. However, most of it is either unsuitable for the majority of the population (who lack the necessary skills) or there isn't enough of it to make a real difference. Even worse, the amounts of jobs even in these areas will also fall due to automation, although not as deeply as unskilled jobs.

Due to this, in the nearby future (50-100 years, or even sooner), a large portion of the population will become unemployed. Not because they don't want to work, but because there aren't any (suitable) jobs available.

When faced with a very large amount of unemployed people (40%+) with no prospects of getting a job, governments will need to do something, both because voters will demand it and because uprisings will follow if nothing is done.

The only workable solutions will be the introduction of government-funded (and unnecessary) jobs or the introduction of a very generous welfare system (a very meager one will not be sufficient, because the government will be facing a very large amount of motivated people with no different future prospects who see luxury around them all day long). In order to make this possible, very high taxes on the wealthy will be necessary. In short, you'll have a socialist country.