Hey wizdom,
Quote:
Originally posted by wiZd0m:
Juge, if I flip a coin 100 times, and it gets on face 100 times in a row, what are the odds of it hitting the tail on the next flip? A Head?
I'm sure you simply forgot that everytime you reset the pool, you also reset the odds. So even after 100 straight faces, it's still 1/2 chance of getting it right (Be it tail or heads)
It's Same Thing (tm) for u going from room to room, the odds don't change, so i'd keep my money ;-)
Common Sense has nothing to do with odds. ;-)
|
My post was to simply state that common sense doesn't understand statisitics, of which you have just proven. Don't take that as an insult, I will explain:
The odds of a coin hitting heads is exactly 50% whenever you flip it regardless of its past. Everyone knows this.
There's no such thing as a rest.
My post was to simply stat that the 1:180 signup ratio doesn't mean shit when the number of sign ups is 1, and the number of clicks is 180. This guy could have a 1:10,000 ratio. Look at every month for all these 10,000 clicks, giving that he gets 180 clicks/month. ONE of these months will show an awesome ratio (1:180) the rest will have a shit ratio (no sign ups).
This is such a low level of statistics that everyone should understand this.
The question I posed was to allow people to understand how misconcepted (is that a word?) people are when it comes to stats.
I really do not understand the meaning of your post. If you are trying to prove me wrong, then this is unneeded - I understand stats - really, I do. Common sense usually isn't very good when trying to determine the outcome of most statistic problems, including the coin one for most idiots.
let me know,
------------------
Juge - webmaster of
Juge's Bikini and Thong Page
http://www.jugesbikini.com/