I always think of it as an OLD shampoo commercial. "and they told 2 friends, and they told 2 friends, and so on, and so, and so on..."
Some sponsors have a "HOT" period. They just kick so much ass that you make money EASY. I used to do great with dialers when they were hot(pre-FTC), and since then I don't even bother. It's always great to catch a hot program/marketing strategy. It's like hitting a hot craps table in a casino. But that hot streak isn't permanent. It gets caught onto by a lot of people, and the stats shrink. That's the way it goes. I've had hot sponsors given to me, and I've told friends about hot sponsors, too. But I've honestly never had a hot sponsor come to me dierctly off a message board. Some decent ones, but not a super money maker.
But, some sponsors never seem to get weak, no matter how many webmasters use it. AVS sites have been around forever, and there must be a billion of them out there. Yet I still get sales, and so do my friends who I can convince to give it a try.
As far a programs overexposed... I bet one program I used to love would still kick ass, if they'd drop those crappy entrance consoles that open over the tour. That's a pipe dream, since I can't even imagine the cash those puppies must be generating. They are there for a reason.
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