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The law of averages works in a specific way you know.
Say you have a conversion rate of 1:100.
The law of averages does NOT say that every 100th hit will be a sale. It says that if you put your product in front of enough people, 1 out of 100 will buy it.
Sometimes you get what appears to be 5:100 buying and then no one else until the average catches up with you.
Or you may have 1:1000 and it looks like you aren't doing shit, but then all the sudden you get 9 in a row and it's averaged back out.
The law of averages also only holds true when you have a large enough sample for the math to become apparent. If you convert something 1:100 but you only send it 200 attempts, well there is not enough there to be sure you are averaging 1:100. You may need to send 2000 hits to get the math right.
But once it's there, it's there.
When you have mass quantities of traffic, it's much easier to say, hey we're having a down hour, but you still have to have the traffic and sales to know that this is true.
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