I won't post my spreadsheet, sorry
But I'll do some quick math for ya... down and dirty 3rd grade stuff here to show!
100 sign ups
$4.95 trial
$39.95 monthly
$1.00 x sell
$39.95 monthly x sell
25% x sell opts
100 sign ups * $4.95 = $495
25 x sell opts * $1.00 = $25
35% trials convert = 35 * $39.95 = $1398.25
35% x sell convert = 8 * $39.95 = $319.60
Membership Income in 3 days = $2237.85 gross
Processing Fees, Refunds, C/Bs, Revokes = 20% = $1790.28 net
Payout $35 * 100 = $3500
Additional Income (mailing, upsells, www sales, consoles) of 20% = $700 net
Total Income in 3 days = $2490.28
That leaves a $1009.72 defecit from 3 days of activity, after averaging out 10 months of additional recurring income from those 100 members will far outweigh that $1010 defecit and retrun a gross profit. This is where volume comes in order to handle overhead and product costs which should not be very significant.
If I made minor mathematical errors, please forgive me, I didn't review the post! This again is VERY simple and the spreadsheet that ARS operates off is very in depth and detailed but you can see how you set up your minimum performance variables on controllables.