As far as history, there have been some REAL serious real estate busts both on the local level and national level (Japan). This is not just a US bubble, it is a world-wide bubble and not just in real-estate prices but nearly all assets. Check out commodity prices the past few months.
The inflation adjusted nation-wide average rise in housing prices the past year has been the steepest rise in history. When you can say "steepest rise in history" you can usually be assured the bust is next. When? no one knows. There can be a real disconnect from fundamentals when fortunes are being made. Consider all the people who in 1996 forecasted the stock market would burst. Greenspan used the phrase "irrational exuberance" in 1996. Four years later the market was still rising and the new catch-phrase was "new economy"; a concept that recurringly appears in such telling years as 1929, 1971 and 2000. Then the markets tanked. The Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value in a short period.
What always happens in the manias is that people claim the fundamentals have changed and support the rise. In 2000, increases in productivity would push the Dow Jones to 36,000.
You can still buy the book.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...books&n=507846
Published September, 1999. What timing!
Now people think there are fundamental reasons why people in Boston and Miami should be getting rich by buying property in one year and selling in the next. Bulls are a great ride for people who don't get on at the top. Those who do get bucked.