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Like any market, the bubble popping, if indeed it does, will take out some of the excess in the housing market. People who were truly stupid (bidding against each other above the asking price, buying houses unseen, etc.) could get hurt.
But most single family real estate sold in the U.S is owner occupied. I signed a contract to for a house in Flordia, and am not worried. I negotiated the hell out of and did the research. What is driving the growth in that area is an influx of baby-boomers and retirees. They are running out of land, and as new development becomes impossible, the existing real estate goes up. I don't think its possible to come up with a forecast where Florida stops growing. Its just not possible to manufacture area to live with Florida's most valuable commodity - sunshine.
The reason real estate never shaves off 50 or 60% as stock markets occasionally do is simple - you don't have to sell during the downterm, if you occupy the house and aren't in over your head. I've waited out at least two real estate downturns in my life and came out fine, so I am not worried about this one either.
Japan is a totally different case. Totally fucked up banking system and corruption killed their econcomy off.
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