Gold: Here is the "shake out" I predicted

[VikingMan]

I don't know how much lower the shake out will take us in the metals market but I don't think Gold will go much lower. Of course it certainly could get more bloody but I see the absolute downside around $1,100. Check the price next year, it won't be around these levels I wonder if you will even get your hands on a substantial amount of it in the future.

Yes I did predict this last month in a thread about the price of gold. And of course my timing is almost dead on. I will let one of you 9/11 official story conspiracy kooks spend your time digging up the actual post.

I started trading metals 10 years ago and have witnessed all the manipulation of the price many times and have traded with it to make money. I don't have much of my money in metals right now because I sold into the strength a few months ago. I have some put options now but am not going to reveal that info. Being long in this market is the dumbest thing a person could do unless of course you are investing in companies that profit from war and disease.

Will there be more shake outs in the future? I do not know this but I do know that the price is going to go through the roof and gold in the $1,600 range will look cheap. YOU ARE WELCOME


.

[~Ray]

the price should split like stocks do

[VikingMan]

Originally Posted by ~Ray

the price should split like stocks do

Yes alchemy would be fun!

[grumpy]

you bought gold or gold papers?

[~Ray]

Originally Posted by *******

Yes alchemy would be fun!

I see what I did there

[Contempt]

Gold will always go up in value no matter what for ever and always.

[VikingMan]

Originally Posted by grumpy

you bought gold or gold papers?

I have bought both in the past. I traded paper. Now I just have small amount stored at the bank. I can make more money with put options as long as the dollar does not go to zero

[lazycash]

Of course after you predicted the downturn, the price continued to climb for another month to its all time high and now that its come back down a little you are singing your praises, lol what a nutjob.

[Mutt]

do you still shoot content for any programs?

[tonyfgsoprano]

don't worry, you'll "shake in" again very soon

[VikingMan]

Originally Posted by Mutt

do you still shoot content for any programs?

No, that was a footnote in my life but had lots of fun working with most of the big programs and rubbing shoulders with their owners who are some of the brightest individuals I have ever encountered. I was a webmaster before and just got sick of sitting in front of a computer all day so I move to LA and lived my mini-dream of working in TV/Film/ and of course adult. I still have one dating site in a micro-niche so the entire content theft drama does not affect me. I also sell health products such as high end air/water purifiers and am branching out into marketing home improvement products since that is such a massive industry. I'm not rich after having a kid with tons of medical bills but am doing ok but have an awesome family so is much more rewarding. Thanks for asking.

[VikingMan]

Originally Posted by lazycash

Of course after you predicted the downturn, the price continued to climb for another month to its all time high and now that its come back down a little you are singing your praises, lol what a nutjob.

You miserable little boy. I predicted that in about a month the price would most likely be much lower. Again let me repeat myself you fucking turd: I did not say the price would go down from the moment I predicted the shake out. A shake out does not happen over a long period of time, it happens suddenly thereby shaking out the small investor. I saw all the same type of shenanigans when I was an active day/swing trader and watched the market makers all day long.

[Mutt]

Originally Posted by *******

No, that was a footnote in my life but had lots of fun working with most of the big programs and rubbing shoulders with their owners who are some of the brightest individuals I have ever encountered. I was a webmaster before and just got sick of sitting in front of a computer all day so I move to LA and lived my mini-dream of working in TV/Film/ and of course adult. I still have one dating site in a micro-niche so the entire content theft drama does not affect me. I also sell health products such as high end air/water purifiers and am branching out into marketing home improvement products since that is such a massive industry. I'm not rich after having a kid with tons of medical bills but am doing ok but have an awesome family so is much more rewarding. Thanks for asking.

oh - cool. good luck with your current projects

[camperjohn64]

Wait, wasn't this the same gold that was selling for $1800 only last week?

[lazycash]

Originally Posted by *******

You miserable little boy. I predicted that in about a month the price would be much lower. Again let me repeat myself you fucking turd: I did not say the price would go down from the moment I predicted the shake out. A shake out does not happen over a long period of time, it happens suddenly thereby shaking out the small investor.

You call it a shake out, I call it market correction. It couldn't continue to climb at the pace it was without a downturn at some point. If it dives to 1100 as you say then you can come on here and toot your horn.

Funny, here is a post from a month ago, hardly seems to be the prediction you're now stating in this thread.

Originally Posted by *******

You will know the time to sell when every person on your block tries to hawk their big screen TVs in order to buy gold. Sure the market may get a big correction and all the sheep will say "see I knew it was in a bubble" but if you wait it will go a hell of a lot higher than 1720.

[2MuchMark]

Originally Posted by Contempt

Gold will always go up in value no matter what for ever and always.

Not true. There is already more gold sold, than exists in the world. Even worse, too many people are buying low value gold coins which contain little to no actual gold. People own less real gold than they think thanks to commissions, speculations etc. The gold bubble may burst too.

[VikingMan]

Originally Posted by lazycash

You call it a shake out, I call it market correction. It couldn't continue to climb at the pace it was without a downturn at some point. If it dives to 1100 as you say then you can come on here and toot your horn.

Funny, here is a post from a month ago, hardly seems to be the prediction you're now stating in this thread.

That is not the post I am talking about. Keep digging. But yeah you have a point, it is not crazy to just call it a correction but had you followed metals like I have for the past decade you would realize how manipulated the market really is. I am calling this a shake out because of the timing of the downturn. I won't go into it further but I feel that some not so pleasant events are around the corner. Hint: The very people who ripped off the USA are going to come back and act as saviors. BTW, I am sorry for calling you names. I really am.

[lazycash]

Originally Posted by *******

That is not the post I am talking about. Keep digging.

Of course it isn't, because it completely contradicts what you claimed you said. lol I guess if you throw enough claims out there, one is bound to work out.

[VikingMan]

Originally Posted by lazycash

Of course it isn't, because it completely contradicts what you claimed you said. lol I guess if you throw enough claims out there, one is bound to work out.

It does not contradict anything I have said. If anything my own personal trades have contradicted what I have said because I sold off in the $1,640 range while I was saying the price would continue to climb. The reason I sold was so I could put my money into other areas such as put options. I still have some though and will hold for a long time regardless of market fluctuations.

[porno jew]

easy to predict prices will go down during a bubble.

[JP-pornshooter]

well i am def one not selling my metals.
the show just started, gold will be over $2k/oz by end of this year.

remember the old saying:
when others are selling, you should be buying.

[tonyfgsoprano]

There is no gold bubble.

it's not the value of gold that increases, it's the value of paper that going down.
As long as U.S government will print Monopoly $ (Q.E inside), gold will increase, that's just as simple as that.

Even if banks can manipulate the market price, they will not be able to do that all the time, we're going into a mega inflation of money, there is no decent solution to world crisis, private and public debts reached unbelievable levels.

If you look at gold graphics, you have an increase of 600% since 2001, and more generally the increase is constant since 30 years.
It's not a bubble, but a structural tendancy showing that our system failed since 30 years.
Have a good depression

[blackwater]

Just to stick the boot in china are buying more gold than anyone at the moment. That being the case I would expect anything to burst anytime soon. Psst dont forget the silver 30 yr high and domestic sellers are blind to its worth.

[Houdini]

Do you realize that CME hiked gold margins by 21%, silver by 16% and copper by 18% today? Today is called liquidation to cover margins. ANYTIME CME raises margin rates PM's plummet only to correct itself.

And why so secretive on your put options and to your knowledge about the timing of why it went down? What's the big deal? The reason it went down was leaked knowledge of a margin hike. That coincides with Uncle Ben Bernanke buying long term bonds, which increased the value of the dollar. Gold is valued against the dollar, so anytime the dollar goes up, PM's go down. Just wait until the market needs to be propped and it will soon.

[mafia_man]

Originally Posted by Contempt

Gold will always go up in value no matter what for ever and always.

Except when it goes down.

[Caligari]

Originally Posted by Contempt

Gold will always go up in value no matter what for ever and always.

Yea like right dude for real

As I have been saying all along, gold is incredibly over priced. It's percieved value (artificially inflated) is so far below the real value (just another semi-precious metal) that when it takes a huge dump soon people who didn't buy when it was below 1K will lose alot of money.

The world has so much un-mined gold it's not even funny, and like any bubble as we've seen over the last 20 years gold is gonna go POP with a rather loud bang.

All you have to do is look at is the gold bubble in the 80's and what happened...real easy.

Forbes-
"It is anybody?s guess when gold will correct, but it is very likely that it will be ugly when it does."

and-
http://buying-gold.goldprice.org/200...e-in-1980.html
http://news.yahoo.com/euro-p-futures...011139086.html

etc

[will76]

Originally Posted by *******

I don't know how much lower the shake out will take us in the metals market but I don't think Gold will go much lower. Of course it certainly could get more bloody but I see the absolute downside around $1,100. Check the price next year, it won't be around these levels I wonder if you will even get your hands on a substantial amount of it in the future.

Yes I did predict this last month in a thread about the price of gold. And of course my timing is almost dead on. I will let one of you 9/11 official story conspiracy kooks spend your time digging up the actual post.

I started trading metals 10 years ago and have witnessed all the manipulation of the price many times and have traded with it to make money. I don't have much of my money in metals right now because I sold into the strength a few months ago. I have some put options now but am not going to reveal that info. Being long in this market is the dumbest thing a person could do unless of course you are investing in companies that profit from war and disease.

Will there be more shake outs in the future? I do not know this but I do know that the price is going to go through the roof and gold in the $1,600 range will look cheap. YOU ARE WELCOME


.

You were not alone.... I wasn't sure on the timing, but like the dot com's, stockmarket, oil, housing market, etc... all of them have been fueled and values inflated by PURE HYPE over the last 10+ years, it is so obvious that precious metals (gold in particular) will be following the same course.

The fact of the matter is the people buying gold now, driving up the price are pure idiots doing it because a friend bought 4 weeks ago and it already went up $100 an ounce, so if their friend is making money then they need to get in on the easy money making action too. The problem with these type of people, who buy at the peak is that they shit their pants when the price starts dropping so most of them will unload as they can not afford to "ride it out". That is the savings, money they need to put the kids through college, etc. The other problem is the people who know what they are doing and bought several years ago see the bubble is bursting and know now is the time to sell to make the most money.... the snowball starts and turns into an avalanche. This pattern repeats itself in history so many times.

You don't need to be a wall street guru or finance major, it comes down to history and common sense. You will see some people come on here and make spectacular cases why gold will always go up, throwing around big words and posturing themselves as a guru of investing/trading... but it doesn't need to be over complicated. Sometimes you can't see the forest through the trees and you over think/complicate things when it comes down to simple common sense and looking at history and how people are reacting (to the hype.)

Originally Posted by camperjohn64

Wait, wasn't this the same gold that was selling for $1800 only last week?

Almost $1900 a couple weeks ago, now down to $1680.

[Bill8]

The market dropped 6%, so people are taking profit from their gold. The money to cover the bets has to come from somewhere.

There's a saying - "when you can't sell what you want to sell, you sell what you can".

What will be interesting to see is what happens soon, in the next few months.

[will76]

Originally Posted by Bill8

The market dropped 6%, so people are taking profit from their gold. The money to cover the bets has to come from somewhere.

There's a saying - "when you can't sell what you want to sell, you sell what you can".

What will be interesting to see is what happens soon, in the next few months.

That's dumb man. The gold drop has been just in the last couple weeks with most of it in the last couple days. When the market to the huge plunge and dropped from 12,800 down to 11,000 a couple months back, gold shot up from about $1500 to $1800 during the same time. The market has been bouncing between 10,800 - 11,500 consistently the last several weeks. The market going down usually makes gold go up, not people selling gold to make up for market loses. Even if your logic was true, the stats the last couple months don't support it.

[Bill8]

Originally Posted by will76

That's dumb man. The gold drop has been just in the last couple weeks with most of it in the last couple days. When the market to the huge plunge and dropped from 12,800 down to 11,000 a couple months back, gold shot up from about $1500 to $1800 during the same time. The market has been bouncing between 10,800 - 11,500 consistently the last several weeks. The market going down usually makes gold go up, not people selling gold to make up for market loses. Even if your logic was true, the stats the last couple months don't support it.

Oh? What's your theory? If it's a bubble pop, what's the stimulus that popped it?

The news is packed with end to end 2nd recession stories, euro dissolution, mediterrean default - not the kind of thing that one would expect to pop a gold bubble.

But the kind of thing that can provoke a margin panic among the investor class.

We shall see. I got the "sell what you can" line from the commentators - they didn't apply it specifically to gold, but gold is kind of the red headed stepchild of investing.

[Bill8]

The question is, if it wasn't the investor class selling to take profits, who was it?

All the little guys? Suddenly losing faith in gold as a hedge? All suddenly deciding to get rid of it because of an impending greek default and euro crisis? All suddenly deciding deflation is the coming risk? Or maybe all suddenly deciding the bubble is about to pop?

[Houdini]

Originally Posted by will76

That's dumb man. The gold drop has been just in the last couple weeks with most of it in the last couple days. When the market to the huge plunge and dropped from 12,800 down to 11,000 a couple months back, gold shot up from about $1500 to $1800 during the same time. The market has been bouncing between 10,800 - 11,500 consistently the last several weeks. The market going down usually makes gold go up, not people selling gold to make up for market loses. Even if your logic was true, the stats the last couple months don't support it.

Actually not dumb or illogical at all. Hedge funds need cash to cover margin calls and redemption requests. What's one of the few winners all year? Gold. Gold doesn't follow the market, it follows the dollar. The market going down over the past few months, just happened to have a falling dollar at the same time and that's why gold shot up. The reason gold dropped over the last few days with the market, is because the Fed bought long term bonds, and viola, the dollar went up. Liquidation stats for August are meaningless because no serious investor, especially hedge funds, are going to liquidate immediately when the market drops a few hundred points. As the the broader picture comes into view, investors do want secure their profits, redemption requests come in, then hedge funds are forced to liquidate winning positions.

John Paulson is perfect example. http://www.etftrends.com/2011/09/pau...offset-losses/

[Spunky]

I buy the farm with these predictions

[will76]

Originally Posted by Bill8

Oh? What's your theory? If it's a bubble pop, what's the stimulus that popped it?

The news is packed with end to end 2nd recession stories, euro dissolution, mediterrean default - not the kind of thing that one would expect to pop a gold bubble.

But the kind of thing that can provoke a margin panic among the investor class.

We shall see. I got the "sell what you can" line from the commentators - they didn't apply it specifically to gold, but gold is kind of the red headed stepchild of investing.

When oil was at $60 a barrel then shot up to $130 over two years, what caused it to drop over the course of a month back down to $40 ? It certainty wasn't because everyone stopped needing oil lol. Oil was in demand just as much if not more than ever at the time, so why did that crash so hard.... (the hype fizzled). When the dot coms were going gang busters in the late 90s what caused them to suddenly crash back down (the hype fizzled and people realized that the companies weren't nearly worth as much as hype had built them up). Same thing for housing or anything else. I don't think it is just 1 particular world or economic event like raising interest rates or Greece having debt issues, or whatever. I think when something is hyped it can only be hyped so high then it just takes a couple of the big players to cash in, start a little tumble, others feeling "oh no, this must be as high as it will go" and they cash in. Then the panic and those uneducated people who bought in on hype shit their panties and sell, etc... and it starts a snowball, correction, bubble burst, whatever you want to call it.

You people want to make a lot of money. Figure out what the next thing is that will be hyped and buy it now and lots of it before the price go up. Stockmarket, dot coms, housing, oil, and now gold/silver has already been played out... so what is next on the list ???

[will76]

Originally Posted by Houdini

Actually not dumb or illogical at all. Hedge funds need cash to cover margin calls and redemption requests. What's one of the few winners all year? Gold. Gold doesn't follow the market, it follows the dollar. The market going down over the past few months, just happened to have a falling dollar at the same time and that's why gold shot up. The reason gold dropped over the last few days with the market, is because the Fed bought long term bonds, and viola, the dollar went up. Liquidation stats for August are meaningless because no serious investor, especially hedge funds, are going to liquidate immediately when the market drops a few hundred points. As the the broader picture comes into view, investors do want secure their profits, redemption requests come in, then hedge funds are forced to liquidate winning positions.

John Paulson is perfect example. http://www.etftrends.com/2011/09/pau...offset-losses/

Ok so what is it going to be next week if it keeps going down, or has another drop. it will be still because of "Fed bought long term bonds" or the dollar went up. etc... Why didn't gold explode in the past couple years when the dollar dropped low??? if you look hard enough you can try to associate just about anything at any give time as a cause but if you take the same event in the recent past, it doesn't always have the same outcome. It just fits your reason for the day. When gold goes back down to 1500 then 1300 then 1200 and even back down to 1000 at some point in the not so far off future, you guys are all going to have all of these reasons why, when in reality the bottom line was that hyped fizzled and bubble burst. As simple as that.

Gold is being bought up to ridiculous levels over the last couple months mainly because of hype. Everyone is turning to it because its on fire and all the experts are saying it will go up to 2,000 or more. So you can't lose right??? Everyone is jumping on board. Now when something starts going down, the people fueled by hype will stop buying and most will start selling because hype to make a quick buck will get in you, fear of actually losing all of your money will get you out just as fast.

You guy can try to explain it off and blame other events and try to over complicate it all you want, when it really busts and goes back down to realistic, sustainable levels it will be hype that got it up and panic that got it back down. Classic bubble just like all the rest over the last 10 -12 years.

[Bill8]

I don't buy gold myself anymore, I just see it as an interesting phenomenon.

When the price of oil bobbles it's usually fairly easy to tell what the market information that triggered everyone to sell and copy sell actually was - oil is fairly well understood as commodities go.

Gold is completely irrational, technically, it makes little sense as an investment in any sense that professional investors think of investments.

So if you are saying the drop in price is simple irrationality and copying, sure, could be to some extent. Something started the copyselling, the unconscious herd behavior, but it might not have been margin calls and the need to take profits to cover losses and retain liquidity. I think it was, tho.

Maybe some artifact triggered automated selling, and the computers doing the quicktrading cascaded in a race to the bottom. We'll see.

In a couple of days dozens of commentators will publish opinions, we should know more then.

[Bill8]

Top result in google news - basically says what I said, hedge fund panic selling.

The huge price drops in silver and gold can only be explained by substantial hedge fund selling that smacks of credit crisis panic. Both of these markets have risen on highly leveraged buying. Once a few overextended funds are forced to sell because of the financial turmoil in Europe, things can go downhill pretty fast. Stops get taken out and this causes more selling, which in turn takes out more stops and leads to more selling. After this, a rally will follow and there should be a test of the low. If it holds, then a sustainable rally can take place. We are not nearly at the point yet.

http://www.etfguide.com/research/662...s-Off-a-Cliff/

[Bill8]

As the weekend ends so far the commentators seem near unanimous - not a bubble pop, but profit taking to cover losses.

With the added point that the oddity of ETFs makes metals more vulnerable and prone to bobbles.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...=ITP_pageone_0

This WSJ piece is jammed with editorial crap but near the bottom says...

Some hedge funds were selling to raise cash to meet margin calls from lenders. Other investors were using proceeds of silver and gold sales to replenish other parts of their portfolios, which had fallen in value in recent sessions, said George Gero, precious metals strategist at RBC Global Futures.

In addition, it appeared that European banks were selling gold, possibly in order to raise cash and shore up their balance sheets, Mr. Gero said. This selling was then magnified by so-called momentum traders whose strategy is to piggyback on moves up or down in price.

Silver faces the added woe of being widely used in industry, and therefore vulnerable to fears that weak economies will consume less. Moreover, the Shanghai Gold Exchange said Friday that it will expand the upper and lower trading limits for its silver contract.

Exchange-traded funds that invest in, and track, the metals also have helped investors move quickly in and out of gold and silver.

A Gold Rush Wanes as Hedge Funds Sell

For the better part of the last two years, some of the world?s biggest hedge funds have been piling into gold, betting the precious metal would provide an effective hedge against inflation or be a safer place to park cash as equity markets around the world stumbled.

But to the surprise of many investors, when equity markets across the globe tumbled once again on Thursday, gold moved sharply lower as well.

Gold futures for September delivery fell $66.30, or 3.7 percent, to $1,739.20 an ounce in New York. It was quite a turnabout for the metal, which has been soaring in recent months amid the turbulent stock markets.

Hedge funds, which have been ratcheting down their positions in gold futures since early August, were quickly named as the culprits in the latest sell-off.

Some traders said that hedge funds were beginning to unwind, or close out, what has been a very popular and profitable trade for the last 18 months as they bet the dollar would fall and that gold would rise. In the last month alone, the euro has fallen nearly 4 percent against the dollar amid worries about the European debt crisis.

The sell-off in gold was part of a broader move in the markets that had investors shifting away from perceived riskier assets, like commodities, and into the dollar in reaction to the Federal Reserve?s announcement on Wednesday of its new stimulus program.

In addition, the Fed said that there were ?significant downside risks? to the United States economy, which sent several commodities, including crude oil and copper, tumbling on Thursday on fears of a global slowdown in demand.

Other market participants said hedge funds were selling their positions in gold to raise cash to meet increased capital demands for their borrowings from Wall Street banks as the assets they have put up as collateral, like other commodities or stocks, have declined sharply in value.

[Bill8]

It does sound like you could make the argument that the hedges funds blew up gold with the idea of ripping the profit out of it after all the suckers bought it at high prices.

So, it's not impossible this is a bubble pop. But, too early to tell, Bubble could reinflate, too - like harvesting honey from a hive, then letting all the little guys bid up the value again, and harvest it. A pretty trick, if true.

I wonder what the value of 9% of gold happens to be? Thats teh profit the big guys took last week.

[Bill8]

ETFs might arguably be the problem...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09...etals-margins/

To begin with, commodities are purchased with futures contracts, which offer enormous leverage to speculators. As of this Monday, the minimum cash deposit for trading gold futures will be $11,475 per 100-ounce contract ? at $1700 per ounce, that is a $170,000 position. The leverage is nearly 15 to 1. Stocks and bonds, for comparison, trade at 2 to 1 maximum leverage using firm margin. At 15-1, a less than 7% move against you wipes out your capital entirely.

Put it in other terms, if you have $100,000 to speculate with, you can purchase $200,000 worth of stock, or using the same $100k, you can buy $1,481,481.48 in gold futures.

Back in Q1 2009, when Gold was $1000 per ounce, you only needed $5,807.70 to buy 100 ozs of gold in futures (worth $100,000); That?s a little more than 17 to 1 leverage. At those levels, a less than 6% move against you wipes out your capital.

[will76]

Looks like all of those hype buyers had the weekend to find out and think about how gold is dropping, to panic and start selling, under $1600 at the moment. How low will it go before it corrects itself ?

[will76]

Originally Posted by Bill8

It does sound like you could make the argument that the hedges funds blew up gold with the idea of ripping the profit out of it after all the suckers bought it at high prices.

So, it's not impossible this is a bubble pop. But, too early to tell, Bubble could reinflate, too - like harvesting honey from a hive, then letting all the little guys bid up the value again, and harvest it. A pretty trick, if true.

I wonder what the value of 9% of gold happens to be? Thats teh profit the big guys took last week.

you don't need to read through pages to see that. When people start posting on GFY about how everyone should buy gold, you cant lose... your neighbor tells you he is buying, your friends in your fantasy football team etc... I think it's safe to say the "uneducated" are really buying into the hype. When ANYTHING gets to the point that hype is getting people involved that don't know what they are doing it drives up the price, but those same amount of people will be the first to pull out as soon as it starts to drop. The smart people will sell out when they think the hype has gotten high enough for them to cash in. It's all very simple, common sense.

Too much hype too many people got involved with gold over the last couple months because of the hype and because they thought they couldn't lose and wanted to make fast money. Now they scared to death that they might lose little johnny's college fund as they invested money they couldn't afford to lose. The price goes down, these people will sell they not in it for the long run like the people who bought before the hype.

You would be amazed at the people who started trying to flip houses back in 2004/05 who had no clue what they were doing but they knew people making thousands from it. Or the people who started pumping every penny they had into the stock market back in 1999 when they knew nothing about stocks... gold this time around is no different.