The Possible Defualt.....

[Loki]

SO IF this has been said here already sorry, I've not bothered to look at all the threads about it....

I've NOT been following every single thing about the possible US Default, BUT I do know enough about what is going on, today I was chatting with a friend of mine on FB who's serving overseas in the Army and he said "They are cutting our pay, they 'say' we'll get it back around next April but I dunno" and it got me to thinking....
I personally do NOT see a default happening, BUT what I DO see happening is this....

Right now both parties are playing a "sick" game of chicken, seeing who will swerve first, more and more horror stories and gloom and doom will come out between now and Tuesday and some people will surely start to panic (or panic more)

At the last possible moment Our Prez will step up and "save the day" almost assuring himself his reelection.

I mean look at his approval rating right now, lower then low, almost NO WAY of getting to be a two termer at this point, BUT "save the day" and watch what happens to his approval ratings.

Anyone else?

TL;DR

Obama will wait till the last moment, avoid a default and assure himself a 2nd term in office, everything else is just sick smoke and mirrors.

-Loki-

[dyna mo]

obama has caved on most of the key points, way too late for him to save the day.


not to mention, so much damage has already been done. who gives a shit about the difference between the white house and congress or dems/repubs.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

obama has caved on most of the key points

I haven't seen any of them touch on any key points... however, wouldn't you need to see what comes out before you can make that call?

[kane]

I doubt we will default. Nobody knows for sure what would happen and it could be the devestating to one party or the other. If we default both parties will point the finger and it will come down to who passes the blame the best.

However even with a last minute deal it doesn't assure Obama a second term. We are 16 months from the election. That is a long time. Just a few weeks ago after Bin Laden was killed is approval rating jumped to about 55%, now it is back where it was. to me there are two factors that will determine if he is re-elected. First, how the economy in general is doing and second who the republicans nominate. If the republicans nominate some extremist like Palin or Bachman Obama will likely win easy no matter what the economy is like because the liberals will turn out to vote and the independents don't like either of them. If it is someone like Romney who could make a decent case for how to improve the economy he could have a chance. If the economy is doing better and unemployment is down to 8% or less and things are getting better with each month Obama will be very hard to beat.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by TheDoc

I haven't seen any of them touch on any key points... however, wouldn't you need to see what comes out before you can make that call?

you could be very well right.

i've tried to read and learn as much as possible about all of this and taken in several (many) different sources and my conclusion is the white house did cave over the last 2 months.

i could be entirely wrong as i don't claim to fully understand inside the beltway politics.

do you not think he and the white house have given any to many of the repub key points?

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by kane

I doubt we will default. Nobody knows for sure what would happen and it could be the devestating to one party or the other. If we default both parties will point the finger and it will come down to who passes the blame the best.

However even with a last minute deal it doesn't assure Obama a second term. We are 16 months from the election. That is a long time. Just a few weeks ago after Bin Laden was killed is approval rating jumped to about 55%, now it is back where it was. to me there are two factors that will determine if he is re-elected. First, how the economy in general is doing and second who the republicans nominate. If the republicans nominate some extremist like Palin or Bachman Obama will likely win easy no matter what the economy is like because the liberals will turn out to vote and the independents don't like either of them. If it is someone like Romney who could make a decent case for how to improve the economy he could have a chance. If the economy is doing better and unemployment is down to 8% or less and things are getting better with each month Obama will be very hard to beat.

here's the thing. i don't think our politicians thought we would ever default either. so they decided to play brinkmanship. now that it's game on, the game has slipped away from them and i think a default *could* be possible.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by kane

I doubt we will default. Nobody knows for sure what would happen and it could be the devestating to one party or the other. If we default both parties will point the finger and it will come down to who passes the blame the best.

However even with a last minute deal it doesn't assure Obama a second term. We are 16 months from the election. That is a long time. Just a few weeks ago after Bin Laden was killed is approval rating jumped to about 55%, now it is back where it was. to me there are two factors that will determine if he is re-elected. First, how the economy in general is doing and second who the republicans nominate. If the republicans nominate some extremist like Palin or Bachman Obama will likely win easy no matter what the economy is like because the liberals will turn out to vote and the independents don't like either of them. If it is someone like Romney who could make a decent case for how to improve the economy he could have a chance. If the economy is doing better and unemployment is down to 8% or less and things are getting better with each month Obama will be very hard to beat.

don't forget, this is all lining up to be an issue during the crucial holiday season. i don't care for party politics, so i try and discount the fact that boehner/repubs plan has this being an issue at xmas. BUT that's bad man, you know that eh. on a system that is built on confidence*. pfft. crazy shit /

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

you could be very well right.

i've tried to read and learn as much as possible about all of this and taken in several (many) different sources and my conclusion is the white house did cave over the last 2 months.

i could be entirely wrong as i don't claim to fully understand inside the beltway politics.

do you not think he and the white house have given any to many of the repub key points?

As long as we make the needed cuts with projections, that can turn it around... then, I'll think they hit the key points. Cutting some spending, more later and some revenue (ever how it happens) to replace the war machine drop that will happen, seems to be on the table one way or another.

I wouldn't really say anything they have on the table is what I want, but it's not like that makes a difference, currently at least.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by TheDoc

As long as we make the needed cuts with projections, that can turn it around... then, I'll think they hit the key points. Cutting some spending, more later and some revenue (ever how it happens) to replace the war machine drop that will happen, seems to be on the table one way or another.

I wouldn't really say anything they have on the table is what I want, but it's not like that makes a difference, currently at least.

i would be beyond stoked if this happened.

then leave it up to the american people to innovate and make the necc. effort to pick this country up by the bootstraps. i truly think this WILL happen (if government doesn't devastate us)

[kane]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

here's the thing. i don't think our politicians thought we would ever default either. so they decided to play brinkmanship. now that it's game on, the game has slipped away from them and i think a default *could* be possible.

It could happen. Both parties could decide not to blink and we may find out what happens when we default. I just think if it got to that at the last second Obama would step in and do something. Supposedly there are some executive powers he could use to force a debt cap limit of some sort, but if he uses them it would cause a lot of controversy. I think worse case scenario is that they pass a temporary lift and revisit this next year. The republicans desperately want that because they want this to be an issue during the election and the democrats, obviously, don't.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by kane

It could happen. Both parties could decide not to blink and we may find out what happens when we default. I just think if it got to that at the last second Obama would step in and do something. Supposedly there are some executive powers he could use to force a debt cap limit of some sort, but if he uses them it would cause a lot of controversy. I think worse case scenario is that they pass a temporary lift and revisit this next year. The republicans desperately want that because they want this to be an issue during the election and the democrats, obviously, don't.

i think he can invoke the 14th amendment in some way shape fashion or form which would be a massive dramafest eh.

1 of them, pretty sure it's the 14th

[GetSCORECash]

We default three times before, look where we are now.

[Agent 488]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...Name=topNew s

The United States will likely keep its top-notch credit rating from Moody's for now, despite the "limited magnitude" of the deficit reduction plans being discussed in Washington, the ratings agency said on Friday.

[BlackCrayon]

it seeming more and more like a scare tactic so the public will accept massive cuts so they can funnel money into things that don't serve the people one bit.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Jesus H Christ

Your friends paycheck is being cut as they are also cut back the US mail to 3 days a week and close more PO's across the the nation.

Anyway, defaulting at this point, irrelevant when Moody's already said we'll be downgraded. It starting to look like political posturing acting like we're going to default to shake the market on purpose. In short, we must cause havoc in the Euro markets and try to crash the ?EUR. As crazy as that sounds it's our last hope because if the world switches the energy currency from the dollar, we're truly fucked.

The downside, a push as the banks rise interest rates from being downgraded that will cause more Americans to default themselves on CC's and their mortgages. If you can pay off your CC's, now's the time to do it.

Anyway, I posted last Friday, get out of the market (if you can) and become liquid as much as possible and hang on to see if this works. In short, this is a well designed circus/drama to shake confidence in the Euro markets. So let's see who blinks first.

so who will be the 1st to accept non-american currency for oil purchases?

that's what you are saying this all hinges on right/ who will accept dinars for barrels.

but then it's game over globally right? you can't have any one currency just jump in the petrol dollars game. that shit takes negotations, contracts, treaties, shit,

[INever]

Apple has more cash than the US government. Steve Jobs for President.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by INever

Apple has more cash than the US government. Steve Jobs for President.

quicktime for everybody!

[iamtam]

the republicants will come out of this smelling like shit.

[DWB]

Of course they won't default. They will wait until the last minute, raise the debt ceiling again and keep on spending.

[Vendot]

I personally think theres a possibility that they will fail to allow a default to happen.

Failure would be good news.

[seeandsee]

what will be then be with our monies?

[Theo]

Obama will be re-elected, boomark this page.

[tony286]

Originally Posted by TheDoc

As long as we make the needed cuts with projections, that can turn it around... then, I'll think they hit the key points. Cutting some spending, more later and some revenue (ever how it happens) to replace the war machine drop that will happen, seems to be on the table one way or another.

I wouldn't really say anything they have on the table is what I want, but it's not like that makes a difference, currently at least.

yep it works like it worked for fdr ,the country was coming back . He was pressured by the republicans to cut spending he did and we went right back in to the depression.