If you're in a position to lose a chunk of money and want to speculate on Facebook, go ahead

[DVTimes]

It's the year's hottest initial public offering, but some wealth managers find themselves having a hard time recommending Facebook to their clients.

The world's biggest social network is expected to seek a $75 billion to $100 billion valuation in its IPO, the most anticipated stock offering from Silicon Valley since Google Inc went public in 2004.

At Granite Investment Advisors in New Hampshire, Chief Investment Officer Scott Schermerhorn has already been fielding queries from clients eager to get in on the action.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ate-ahead.html

[Bryan G]

Copy and paste copy and paste.

[JFK]

Originally Posted by Bryan G

Copy and paste copy and paste.

OK , I'll play
Copy and paste copy and paste

[BlackCrayon]

anything highly anticipated will be overvalued. sure it could possibly go up a bit more but the real moneymakers are ones you can get in before they blow up huge.

[DBS.US]

Up. Up, down, down, down

[CurrentlySober]

Originally Posted by DBS.US

Up. Up, down, down, down

You having sex?

[biskoppen]

It will go up the first few days and then drop 20-25% and stay there

[JFK]

Originally Posted by biskoppen

It will go up the first few days and then drop 20-25% and stay there

yeah, pump n dump

[epitome]

These people are right. This is the most highly anticipated stock since Google and look how much Google has tanked since IPO:

Also, remember has just recently Facebook wasn't profitable, and then it suddenly became profitable? Google was the same way, so there is no way this stock can go 5x and sustain.

[DBS.US]

Originally Posted by CurrentlySober

You having sex?

You saw one of my videos?

[Houdini]

Originally Posted by epitome

These people are right. This is the most highly anticipated stock since Google and look how much Google has tanked since IPO:

Also, remember has just recently Facebook wasn't profitable, and then it suddenly became profitable? Google was the same way, so there is no way this stock can go 5x and sustain.

Google was making $2 billion a year profit by the time they went public and they had adwords and adsense in their infancy. But since Facebook isn't a search engine, it's not really fair to compare the two. I do enjoy charts though, so here's one of some of the recent social media stocks that IPO'd last year.

[epitome]

Originally Posted by Houdini

Google was making $2 billion a year profit by the time they went public and they had adwords and adsense in their infancy. But since Facebook isn't a search engine, it's not really fair to compare the two. I do enjoy charts though, so here's one of some of the recent social media stocks that IPO'd last year.

So you honestly believe Facebook is going to take the money and sit on it? I predict that they are going to take that cash and make a run against Google. People are already on Facebook all day it seems. How long until you can type anything into that search box and be whisked away to where you want to go? Then imagine if they served relevant ads around those search results. Of course, they could never achieve what AdSemse does, they had to talk people into letting them on their sites. Oh, that's right, everybody already has like buttons and many sites have moved to Facebook commenting.

[epitome]

And then there is social advertising. Facebook hasn't even tried to make a serious go of that yet.

[papill0n]

10% of all internet traffic is going to facebook.com

this is going to be big

[Houdini]

Originally Posted by epitome

So you honestly believe Facebook is going to take the money and sit on it? I predict that they are going to take that cash and make a run against Google. People are already on Facebook all day it seems. How long until you can type anything into that search box and be whisked away to where you want to go? Then imagine if they served relevant ads around those search results. Of course, they could never achieve what AdSemse does, they had to talk people into letting them on their sites. Oh, that's right, everybody already has like buttons and many sites have moved to Facebook commenting.

So imagine if they were Google? The problem is, they're not. You predict that they're going to use that cash to go against Google based on what information? You predict they're going to create a search engine, when they're absolutely zero evidence that's what they want to do. Could they attempt to get into Google's core businesses and achieve it? Sure they can, but that's currently not their business. So you're speculating that they're going to create something that they, so far, haven't even suggested that they want to be involved in.

Instead of speculating, just listen and read what they want to do. Do I believe that they are going to take that cash and sit on it. Yes! Why? Because that's EXACTLY what Mark Zuckerberg has said they're going to do with it (http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/02/0...ogle_news_blog). Facebook does not need capital, they have almost $4 billion in cash. The IPO is being setup to satisfy the venture capital investors and Facebook employees. To quote Zuckerberg (http://articles.businessinsider.com/...ook-ipo-filing) "We?re going public for our employees and our investors,? he writes. "We made a commitment to them when we gave them equity that we?d work hard to make it worth a lot and make it liquid, and this IPO is fulfilling our commitment."

Don't get me wrong, this stock will probably skyrocket initially from the mania as everyone and their mother wants in. But the current market is trading at 10-14 times earnings and Facebook ipo valuation puts then at 75-100 P/E. They could trade at those multiples for years, but stock prices that trade at those levels, more often than not, are not sustainable.

[bronco67]

It will be initially very valuable, but it will slowly tank when everyone realizes wasting time looking at your second cousin's baby pictures is lame.

[SomeCreep]

All depends on facebooks valuation. Right now it looks like FB will hit the market at over a 100 billion dollar valuation. That would be dog shit.

[Jakez]

stfu seriously.

[epitome]

In 2012, Facebook is projected to have a 56% revenue gain over 2011. It is expected to become a Fortune 500 company in near record time. It's COO and CFO are two very highly respected professionals. It is the number one website in the world. Something like 1 out of every 6 or 8 or 12 people in the world have an account. It has grown leaps and bounds over its 8 year history.

Yeah, this thing is going to crash and burn.

[Paul Markham]

Valuing a company has some simple rules.

Turnover
Profit.
Costs.
Acquisitions.
Personnel.
Property.
Past growth.
Forecast future growth.
Market place.
Standing in the market.
Past market.
Forecast market.

So to take these guides and arrive at a figure of $100 billion on a company that can't make a $billion in profit is dreaming.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavi...than-facebook/

Anyway, Let?s say that Facebook can get membership from 850 million to 2 billion ? a quarter of the Earth?s population. And let?s say the company can roughly triple its annual revenue per subscriber from last year?s $4.39 to $12 per user per year ? a buck a month from a recent 37 cents. That would mean revenue of $24 billion, which would be an impressive total indeed. And let?s say that the company can hang on to last year?s level of profitability ? 27% net margins ? which would mean profits of $6.5 billion. At that level, at a $200 billion market cap, you would still be paying a not insignificant 30x earnings. And reaching those theoretical levels is likely years away.

This is based on the most ridiculous of "can" and "if" possible. Because we all know there, no way the penetration will continue at this rate in "The Western World". Look at the level of earning of 3/4 of the Earth's population. And still it's not worth the figures quoted. I would rather bet on AFF shares.

Yes I know. It was a joke.

[Dirty F]

Originally Posted by Bryan G

Copy and paste copy and paste.

[Dirty F]

Originally Posted by biskoppen

It will go up the first few days and then drop 20-25% and stay there

Sell it after 2 days

[Dirty F]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

Valuing a company has some simple rules.

Turnover
Profit.
Costs.
Acquisitions.
Personnel.
Property.
Past growth.
Forecast future growth.
Market place.
Standing in the market.
Past market.
Forecast market.

So to take these guides and arrive at a figure of $100 billion on a company that can't make a $billion in profit is dreaming.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavi...than-facebook/



This is based on the most ridiculous of "can" and "if" possible. Because we all know there, no way the penetration will continue at this rate in "The Western World". Look at the level of earning of 3/4 of the Earth's population. And still it's not worth the figures quoted. I would rather bet on AFF shares.

Yes I know. It was a joke.

Listen to Paul everybody. We all know he knows everything about everything. That's why he is so successful in life.