Need Stats Freak Help....Have any theories on this

[MikeFold]

Sometimes when I lay stats and notes out in front of me. I can figure out what might be happening.
I ask myself "What am I missing?" I thought I would toss this out there and maybe some stats people could help or maybe it has happened to you and I am totally overlooking something.
I have 3 or 4 sites that have been constant/consistent for years in terms of traffic and click through ratios. Nothing big, just very consistent.
The Last 2 weeks going to the Cam sponsor for these sites have seen a precipitious drop in raws/uniques with numbers I have not experienced in the last 2 years.
I am not looking at conversions, or even concerned about that...I am just trying to figure out what may cause that huge drop in uniques in such a short time (Right around 04/03/14).....
I made a quick page with the 2 parts of the equation that matter. The Traffic from the Source and the actual stats from the Last 4 month for 13 days each month.

4 Months of the 1st 13 Days

Thanks for any input,
Again, no problems I am aware of with the cam site according to the Aff Manager, so what am I missing?

[Nice_Nick]

Is the traffic from search engines like Google? Have you had an algorithm penalty.

I think everyone that runs an adult site is finding it tough right now if they rely on search engines for traffic unless you are one of the big 'brands'.

Personally I have seen huge drops too across multiple sites. I have dropped more than 75% of my traffic. The reason? Fickle Google.

[MikeFold]

Thanks for looking....
No penalties....no apparent variable changes from the source side of the equation...
My referring websites traffic for this sponsor is trending up the last 8 months, and the affiliate stats for this site have reflected the constants (this has been for years, but I am only showing the last 4 months for an example)

so...no..its not the traffic source (those numbers are trending up) and ...yes...they are mostly SE (no link trades except in my own network)

[signupdamnit]

You absolutely have to do your own outbound hit tracking so you know what you are really sending the sponsor at all times. You cannot rely on the sponsors stats. For starters if there is shaving often the big guys will also shave the uniques and/or raws to help hide it. Funny business with the raws or uniques can be one of the first signs.

So if you aren't doing it now check what you are really sending to the sponsor and compare.

[MikeFold]

Originally Posted by signupdamnit

You absolutely have to do your own outbound hit tracking so you know what you are really sending the sponsor at all times. You cannot rely on the sponsors stats. For starters if there is shaving often the big guys will also shave the uniques and/or raws to help hide it. Funny business with the raws or uniques can be one of the first signs.

So if you aren't doing it now check what you are really sending to the sponsor and compare.

Thanks for looking.....
I agree that I should be doing that....I have with certain sponsors, but NOT with this sponsor (been with them since 1999 and I totally trust them)....I am not questioning the signups/ratio.....just trying to figure why the hits may have dropped so dramatically when the referring sites (me) have not lost traffic. Its like all of the sudden, no one is clicking their creatives/ads?

[signupdamnit]

Originally Posted by MikeFold

Thanks for looking.....
I agree that I should be doing that....I have with certain sponsors, but NOT with this sponsor (been with them since 1999 and I totally trust them)....I am not questioning the signups/ratio.....just trying to figure why the hits may have dropped so dramatically when the referring sites (me) have not lost traffic. Its like all of the sudden, no one is clicking their creatives/ads?

In that case check the load time of the creatives, your site, and their site. But I also still say that you must do your own outbound hit tracking otherwise you are largely flying blind.

[MikeFold]

Originally Posted by signupdamnit

In that case check the load time of the creatives, your site, and their site. But I also still say that you must do your own outbound hit tracking otherwise you are largely flying blind.

that is a first for me reading GFY (actual help) Thank You!.....are the creatives loading properly and enticing the surfer?
actually that is an interesting theory and a possibility

I will check the sites....I know the traffic is up, but are the ads loading properly?

.....what I should do is provide a link here, and ask everyone to just click on it and see if they work

(.....thinking....)

[Nice_Nick]

Maybe more people now use adblock?

[MikeFold]

Originally Posted by Nice_Nick

Maybe more people now use adblock?

possible, but over 60% drop in 10 days over a 16 month+ average?

[ravo]

The drop in raw traffic could be pretty easily explained, and you've already got a few ideas to work on (eg. lowered SE traffic, lower CTR on the ads).

But, I also see a massive change in the unique to raw ratio; from around 3:1 or 4:1 to 5.5:1 in April. Has the program changed the way they count uniques? How do they define a "unique"? Just a thought....

[MikeFold]

Originally Posted by ravo

The drop in raw traffic could be pretty easily explained, and you've already got a few ideas to work on (eg. lowered SE traffic, lower CTR on the ads).

But, I also see a massive change in the unique to raw ratio; from around 3:1 or 4:1 to 5.5:1 in April. Has the program changed the way they count uniques? How do they define a "unique"? Just a thought....

thanks rav.....those were my initial thoughts (different counting techniques with a new interface/landing page)
my aff manager said no change has been made...as they suggested, I changed 6 or 7 links/creatives with new syntax codes....made no difference....

This is why I am asking here, because I must be missing something that's right in front of me....and there are smarter people here than I am...

also, just to accentuate the oddity here
(I just tabulated this)
The 5 sites that contribute to the traffic side of the equation looked like this

April 1st-3477 Total Uniques for these 5 sites(from AW Stats) 274 Raw/60 Uniques to sponsor
April 12th-4418 Total Uniques for these 5 sites(from AW Stats) 130 Raw/7 Uniques to sponsor

You can see the decline the last 6 days

Note: Come On Fred Couples at the Masters...win one for the old guys

[myleene]

Google honeymoon period:
http://www.gethow.org/how-to-recover...neymoon-period

[MikeFold]

Originally Posted by myleene

Google honeymoon period:
http://www.gethow.org/how-to-recover...neymoon-period

thanks for the input...
the "newest site" in the small network that these stats reflect was initiated in 2009, and the oldest site was launched in 1997
the stats for these 5 sites are constant

Not only is the honeymoon been long over, but I have been through at least 5 divorces and a couple of trial separations

[Nice_Nick]

Originally Posted by myleene

Google honeymoon period:
http://www.gethow.org/how-to-recover...neymoon-period

Poor article. Reads like it was written by an Indian that shouldn't be writing complex articles.

[MikeFold]

Thanks for the info RA....may have answered some of it, but as I said, I have no concerns about conversions, just trying to figure where all the "hits" (uniques) went